Worst cyclone to come closest to Mumbai in over 40 years

Cylcone Tauktae, an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) that passed Mumbai shortly after noon on Monday, was the worst cyclone to have skirted the city in at least four decades leading to a cancellation of flights, bringing sections of the public transportation network to a halt, and disrupting the work from home schedules of residents due to power-cuts and poor mobile connectivity

Cylcone Tauktae, an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) that passed Mumbai shortly after noon on Monday, was the worst cyclone to have skirted the city in at least four decades leading to a cancellation of flights, bringing sections of the public transportation network to a halt, and disrupting the work from home schedules of residents due to power-cuts and poor mobile connectivity.

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that Tauktae began crossing Mumbai’s latitude at about 12.37pm on Monday, at a distance of about 120-130km from the coast. Independent experts said the cyclone, which intensified into an extremely severe storm early on Monday, was likely the first such category of storm to venture this close to the port city since 1891. By comparison, cyclone Nisarga, a severe cyclonic storm (a category of lesser intensity) that made landfall in the state’s Raigad district last June, glanced 110 km off Mumbai’s coast, but left the city largely unscathed.

“It can be safely assumed that in the satellite era -- from 1980 onwards -- Tauktae is the most intense tropical cyclone to venture so close to Mumbai. It is a Category 4 system, as per global standards of the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre whereas Nisarga was a significantly weaker Category 1 tropical cyclone, which in turn had also become weaker by the time it made landfall at the Diveagar coast in Maharashtra,” Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist associated with the University of Reading, United Kingdom, said.

“In November 1948, a severe cyclone had landfall north of Mumbai. The IMD doesn’t mention in their cyclone dataset whether it was an ESCS, but it was probably not. So, if that’s ruled out, Tauktae is the first ESCS to come so close to Mumbai since 1891. It is significant because it may be sooner than 100 years before such an incident happens again,” said Matthew Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Impact of the storm

When it achieved peak intensity off the Mumbai coast, the cyclone itself was traveling at a speed of 120 knots, or 222kmph, as it travelled north-westward toward Gujarat, unleashing gale winds touching upwards of 100kmph in the city.

Tauktae’s intensity was felt across the city as residents shared videos of fallen trees, broken power cables and choppy waves in the Arabian Sea as wind speeds of 114 km/hour were reported at around 2 pm by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s weather station at Afghan Church in Colaba.

Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) closed all flight operations starting 11 am on Monday and diverted at least seven planes through the day. Airlines cancelled services to Mumbai, including 34 arrivals and 22 departures, and the airport resumed services late Monday night.

During the day, nearly 20 local trains were cancelled and 50 delayed owing to the disruption in both the Central and Western Railway suburban train networks, due to waterlogging and tree falls, while the BrihanMumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) diverted buses on 72 routes in the city due to waterlogging in 19 arterial roads.

Eight people were injured in 26 incidents of wall collapses in three separate incidents, while 17 incidents of short circuit and at least 479 tree falls – 158 in south Mumbai alone -- were reported in the city. A wall of house collapsed injuring four members of a family in Borivali east, while in Andheri, a woman was injured when a slab of a wall fell over her. According to the BMC, the woman’s condition is stable, and she is admitted to a private hospital.

Two people are feared to have drowned in two separate incidents in Mahim and Madh, where 10 people were stuck in their boats due to the rough seas and coast guards had to go to their aid, the BMC disaster management cell confirmed. Some of the survivors swam back to safety.

Power supply was interrupted in many areas like Andheri west, Vile Parle, Kalina, Versova and Kurla. “To ensure the continuity of power supply and mitigate any disruptions owing to the cyclone Tauktae and heavy rains, team AEML took all the necessary precautions. Our specialized Quick Response Teams were on standby and ensured, wherever there were power disruption complaints, the supply was restored with the minimum interruption,” a spokesperson for Adani Electricity Mumbai Limited (AEML) which distributes power to the suburbs, said.

Eastern suburbs like Mulund, Bhandup and Vikhroli, which the state-owned Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Limited (MSEDCL) supplies power to, were also affected. The company later said in a statement said that disruptions were experienced in other districts too, including Sindhudurg and Ratnagiri, and that it aimed to restore normalcy by late Monday with a focus on Covid Care Centres and vaccination centres.

BMC officials said that south Mumbai was the most hit as the cyclone went from south to north further towards Gujarat, leading to severe waterlogging in areas including Oval Maidan, Warden Road, Colaba as well as low-lying areas such as Hindmata, King’s Circle, and Dadar TT in central parts of the city.

Civic activist Nikhil Desai from Dadar said, “Like every year even this year we had water logging in King’s Circle and Hindmata area. Though the rainfall was not expected this early but this shows that we are not prepared for the monsoon like every year. I do not know how much underground rainwater storage tank work is completed, but it is the truth that minutes of rainfall resulted in Hindmata and King Circle’s Gandhi Market got flooded.”

Wettest May

Mumbai also recorded the highest rainfall for the month of May, with its Santacruz observatory registering 194mm in 12 hours. The last time the city had experienced a wetter May was in 2000, when on May 19, it registered 190mm of rain. Private forecasters recorded close to 276mm and 252mm of rain in Juhu and Worli – both areas close to the sea -- though the IMD did not confirm these numbers separately. The city, however, was spared the fate wrought by the extreme rainfall event (an altogether different climatic event) on July 26, 2005, when it recorded 644mm in a 12-hour period between 8 am and 8 pm, which led to floods and brought life to a standstill.

Jayanta Sarkar, meteorologist and head of the IMD’s regional forecasting centre in Mumbai, said, “At Santacruz weather station, which is representative of the whole city, we recorded the highest rainfall for May ever at 194mm. It is possible that other locations may have exceeded this amount. The same goes for wind speeds. At the IMD’s Colaba observatory today we recorded a maximum wind speed of 108kmph, but it is possibly higher in other locations.”

State environment minister Aaditya Thackeray held a meeting with BMC officials on Monday following which he posted on Twitter: “We are doing everything we can to keep you safe. The BMC has begun to clear out fallen trees with every breather we get in the pattern of strong winds and heavy rain. We are working to ensure normalcy at the earliest. Today’s cyclone hit wind speeds of 114 kmph, highest ever for Mumbai in any recent records. This is a climatic pattern that we have started studying, along with its maximum impact points, water logging areas and types of trees that are damaged. Our 3 jumbo covid care centres that have been vacated as precaution, will now be taken up for maintenance and repairs over the next 10 days.”

“One does not see a cyclonic storm with such high intensity hitting the coast. Above threshold sea surface temperatures across the Arabian Sea, particularly over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea, have kept on strengthening Cyclone Tauktae. Essentially, due to global warming, the tropical storm which would have otherwise degraded to a cyclonic or low-pressure depression prior to landfall can now sustain the strength of very severe to severe cyclonic storms very close to the coast. This change is here to stay, and we might see more devastating storms in the future that are more damaging than even Tauktae,” said Mahesh Palawat, VP Meteorology at private forecaster Skymet Weather.