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Covid cases in J&K drop by 77% from June to July, testing up by 25%
Experts say that the number of cases may continue to remain low for a few weeks, after which they will rise again as restrictions have been eased and people are not taking precautions
Covid-19 cases in Jammu and Kashmir dropped by 77% in July, while deaths due to the disease decreased by 86%, despite a 25% increase in the number of tests, as compared to June.
Experts say that the number of cases may continue to remain low for a few weeks, after which they will rise again as restrictions have been eased and people are not taking precautions.
According to official data, the union territory recorded 5,800 infections and 55 deaths of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in July. In June, the union territory had recorded 25,197 cases and 416 deaths.
There has been a consistent decrease in test positivity rate (TPR) in July – 0.46% for July 1-10, 0.28% for July 11-20 and 0.23% for July 21-31. The number of daily cases had reduced to under 100 after July 20 to 63 on July 23 during the second wave.
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TPR is the percentage of tests that turn out to be positive, out of the total tests conducted during the period. It helps indicate the extent of infection in the community.
The overall TPR in the month of July dropped to 0.32%, while it had been 1.80% in June.
However, the past 10 days have witnessed a slight increase in cases. The TPR from July 25 to August 3 has slightly increased to 0.24%. The daily cases for the past 10 days are fluctuating between 100 and 160.
Experts are saying that the situation may remain like this for two to three weeks after which the cases are expected to rise again as the restrictions have been eased.
“We are at the same position we were in February when the first wave had ebbed. The daily cases will hover around 100, sometimes 20 up and sometimes 20 down, and this will change after two-three weeks when the cases will again rise,” said Dr Owais H Dar, general secretary of Doctors’ Association of Kashmir.
“As restrictions have been eased and everything is open, people are hardly wearing masks. The virus variants are also evolving. These things will obviously add up and the third wave will emerge,” he said.
In May, when the second Covid-19 wave peaked, the TPR was 8.77% with the union territory recording 114,000 cases and 1,625 deaths.
There has been a consistent increase in the average monthly number of tests in the past three months. The union territory conducted 1.758 million tests in July – over 25% more than June, when 1.393 million tests were conducted. On an average, 56,700 people were tested daily in July and 46,400 in June.
Dr Owais said that he is hopeful that the third wave won’t be as severe as the second.
“We have a positive thing this time which is vaccination. A lot of people have taken the vaccine. So we expect that the peak this time won’t be that high. But it will also depend on the mutations of the virus,” he said.
