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It’s Mulayam’s legacy vs BJP’s strategy in Mainpuri
The SP has never lost the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat since 1996 and the BJP has been making quiet inroads in the assembly elections since 2017 and is confident that “Modi Ki Guarantee” will help it sail through
While the Samajwadi Party bastion of Azamgarh in east Uttar Pradesh was demolished by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha by-election following the 2022 Vidhan Sabha Polls, the Central U.P. seat of Mainpuri still remains a Samajwadi turf with Dimple Yadav winning it in the bypolls following the demise of “Netaji” (SP founder) Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Immediately after the 2019 polls, the BJP had crafted a strategy for the 16 seats in Uttar Pradesh that it lost and Mainpuri was priority number one among them.
Moreover, the Bharatiya Janata Party was emboldened by its win in one assembly seat (Bhongaon) in Mainpuri district in 2017 and two (Mainpuri Sadar and Bhongaon) in 2022.
It is now eyeing the chance to taste success in the Lok Sabha constituency’s first general election after the death of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2022.
Exuding confidence about his party’s prospects, the BJP’s Mainpuri district president Rahul Chaturvedi said, “Modi Ki Guarantee is the biggest factor. What has not happened in independent India will happen now, that is the BJP candidate winning from Mainpuri.”
”The day we lost in 2019, we began our preparations. But the sympathy wave in the 2022 by-election, held just two months after death of Mulayam Singh Yadav, did not bring the expected result for our party. But SP candidate Dimple Yadav, who won the bypoll, has disappointed voters here. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, there is no sympathy wave. Nor any emotional appeal will work. What will work will be ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ that will see the BJP sail through,” Chaturvedi added.
On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party has not lost the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat since 1996. Mulayam Singh Yadav contested the last election of his life from Mainpuri in 2019 and won.
Dimple is once again in the fray as the SP candidate but the BJP is yet to name a challenger.
Three years before the 2022 bypoll, “Jiska jalwa kayam hai….uska naam Mulayam hai” was the most commonly raised slogan during the 2019 campaign. Back then, Mulayam shared the stage with Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati on the Christian College ground in Mainpuri on April 19, 2019, leaving behind their hostilities dating back to the guesthouse incident of June 1995. The SP and the BSP contested the 2019 election as allies. Mulayam and Mayawati, accompanied by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, sat side by side even as the crowd cheered the alliance.
Much has changed since then. The SP is without “dhartiputra” (son of the soil) Mulayam Singh Yadav and its alliance with the BSP is a thing of the past. The Congress, which is the SP’s current partner as both are members of the INDIA bloc, remains a bit player in the Yadav belt.
Acknowledging the new ground reality, BJP district chief Rahul Chaturvedi said, “Things have changed and fast. Now half of the four assembly seats in Mainpuri district are with the BJP -- Mainpuri Sadar and Bhongaon. Bhongaon MLA Ram Naresh Agnihotri was a minister in the state cabinet in 2017 and Mainpuri Sadar MLA Jaiveer Singh is currently the tourism minister. Both have done a lot for Mainpuri and this stands to our benefit.”
For good measure, Chaturvedi underlined: “The BJP already has a zila panchayat president, six cooperative members, a Nagar Palika president, seven out of nine nagar panchayats, two assembly constituencies in Mainpuri in its grip. The BJP is all set to add Mainpuri to list of the Lok Sabha seats that it will win in 2024 and break the Samajwadi Party’s winning streak since 1996.”
The Samajwadi Party too knows the importance of the seat. Dimple Yadav is already on the campaign trail and the frequency of her visits has increased.
The Mainpuri parliamentary seat is part of Agra division. It has 17 lakh voters. Yadav voters are dominant. They number about 4.30 lakh followed by 2.90 lakh Shakyas and about 2 lakh Thakurs. Others include 1.50 lakh Scheduled Caste voters, 1.10 lakh Brahmins, 1 lakh Lodhis, 70,000 Vaishya and 60,000 Muslim voters.
In 2022, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav contested his first assembly election from Karhal in Mainpuri and won it despite a tough fight from Union minister and Agra MP SP Singh Baghel, who had once been Mulayam’s security incharge. The ageing Mulayam Singh Yadav had to address a public meeting to seek votes for his son.
“In fact, it was not a cakewalk for Mulayam Singh Yadav even in 2019 as the victory margin was merely 94,000 though the SP had an alliance with the BSP. Both Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati were leaders of stature having the capacity to transfer votes. In any election in this region, the BSP begins its tally with at least one lakh assured votes. But this time, with no BSP along with the SP and the Congress merely a bit player, there will be a change of fortune for the BJP this time,” a BJP supporter said.
Samajwadi Party district president Alok Shakya, who has been accompanying Dimple Yadav during the ongoing campaign, disagrees with this theory.
“Mainpuri mein to sab Netaji ka hi hai. Woh khud chunav laden, unki bahu lade, koi lade....chunav to Netaji ka hi hai” (It’s Netaji all the way in Mainpuri),” Alok Shakya said.
He said a mass contact campaign is under way in all four assembly seats of Mainpuri with an aim to increase the victory margin of Dimple Yadav, who won the 2022 by-election by 2.88 lakh votes.
“We were ahead in all four assembly segments during the parliamentary by- election and defeated the BJP by nearly 3 lakh votes. We are getting huge support from all sections of society as Netaji lives on in the hearts of Mainpuri voters,” Shakya said.
Mainpuri district has four assembly seats -- Karhal (represented by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav) Mainpuri Sadar, Kisni and Bhongaon. Jaswant Nagar assembly seat in Etawah district too is part of the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency and this works in favour of the SP, claimed Shakya.
“Party president Akhilesh Yadav is MLA from Karhal and his uncle Shivpal Yadav is MLA from Jaswant Nagar. We have never lost these two assembly seats and Jaswant Nagar adds a huge number of votes to the SP kitty,” he said.
LOK SABHA POLLS IN MAINPURI SINCE 1996
1996: Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) won by 51,958 votes
1998: Balram Singh Yadav (SP) won by 10,366 votes
1999: Balram Singh Yadav (SP) won by 28,026 votes
2004: Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) won by 33,870 votes
2009: Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) won by 1,73,069 votes
2014: Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) won by 3,64,666 votes
2019: Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) won by 94,389 votes
LS BY-POLLS IN MAINPURI
2004: Dharmendra Yadav (SP) won by 1,79,713 votes
2014: Tej Pratap Yadav (SP) won by 3,21,249 votes
2022: Dimple Yadav (SP) won by 2,88,461 votes
