The Congress Matrix: On the margins of state politics, but strong-footed in Kanpur
The seat that manifest the proverbial rich and working class divide is pitched again for a BJP vs Congress fight
In consecutive elections since 2014, the Congress has found itself relegated to a footnote in Uttar Pradesh politics. In the Lok Sabha elections, the party’s presence is largely felt in Rae Bareli and adjoining Amethi seats, which the Gandhi family contested till 2019.
Beyond the traditional two strongholds, there is Kanpur Lok Sabha seat, which has preserved the party’s fast fading footprint. Since the BJP’s phenomenal rise in the ‘90s in UP politics, the seat that manifest the proverbial rich and working class divide, has seen a direct contest between the two parties to a point where other parties have struggled for political space.
The 2019 general elections stand as a poignant example of Kanpur’s unique political dynamics. Despite experiencing a nationwide wave in favour of the BJP, the battle in Kanpur was intense and the Congress pulled off its best ever polling. Despite there being an alliance between the SP and the BSP, it was Congress’s Sriprakash Jaiswal who was in a direct contest with BJP’s Satyadev Pachauri. Pachauri won by polling more than 4.60 lakh votes, But Congress stood runner–up with more than 3 lakh votes. The SP-BSP alliance candidate could get just around 49,000 votes.
Sriprakash had also been in a straight fight with the BJP’s senior leader Murli Manohar Joshi in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Joshi had won the election, but Sriprakash had polled more than 26% votes and had stood second. Before 2014, Sriprakash had won the Kanpur seat for his party three terms in a row from 1999 to 2009 general elections. Before that, the seat was represented in the Lok Sabha by BJP’s Jagatveer Singh Drona.
The question therefore arises as to why in this Industrial city of a strong working class and sizeable minority presence has been a fertile ground for the Congress rather than SP or the BSP when it comes to national politics? GP Verma a political analyst says, “You can say in Kanpur there exists a compelling ideological battleground between the BJP and the Congress, deeply rooted in historical narratives and contemporary political dynamics,”
The Congress has won this seat six times and the BJP, the left and the left supported independent five times. Since 1991, the seat has either been with the BJP or the Congress. The other two parties, the Samajwadi Party (BSP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) never came in the reckoning.
Interestingly, at the time when the upper castes, including the Brahmins, are largely perceived to be with the BJP, the Congress still maintains a strong presence among them. Brahmins are estimated to be around 18% of the total electorate. Muslims make around 22% of the total voters and have generally gone with the Congress in the national elections and with the Samajwadi Party in the assembly polls
With Sriprakash Jaiswal being out of electoral race due to poor health, the Congress has fielded educationist Alok Mishra as its candidate. In response, the BJP too has betted on a Brahmin. It has fielded journalist Ramesh Awasthi, The BSP has named a Rajput candidate Kuldeep Bhadauria.
As far as the non-Congress, non-Left spectrum of Hindutva politics is concerned, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) , the ideological fountainhead of the BJP, marked its presence in Kanpur as early as 1925, laying the groundwork for the party’s subsequent rise in the region. While the Sangh and its diverse frontal organisations had a respectable presence in the region, the big political fortunes came with the rise of The Ram temple Movement in the mid-1980s. The impact was felt in Lok Sabha elections of 1991, when the BJP won the seat. In subsequent polls in 1996 and then in 1998, it again won the seat, before it was wrested by the Congress in 1999.
However, even during that turbulent decade of Mandir politics and also the Mandal and the Dalit politics phenomenon, the Congress largely maintained its number two position in the general elections. The trend of BJP vs the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls has largely continued since 1991.
Now, in the present contest of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the trend is all set to continue. The only big change in this BJP versus the Congress battle is the fact that both parties have betted on entirely new and non-political faces. While the Congress feels more confident after its alliance with the Samajwadi Party, the BJP is hopeful of a hattrick riding on a strong “Modi and Yogi wave.”