Bihar RS polls: Voting looms after a decade as RJD challenges NDA dominance

The Rajya Sabha election in Bihar on March 16 sees RJD's Amarendra Dhari Singh challenging NDA's stronghold, stirring political drama and potential cross-voting.

Rajya Sabha (RS) election for five seats is heading toward voting on March 16, the first in over ten years. The entry of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate Amarendra Dhari Singh, a prominent businessman, has upended what many expected to be a smooth sail for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), forcing a showdown in the state assembly where cross-voting whispers are already stirring echoes of past political drama.

Bihar RS polls: Voting looms after a decade as RJD challenges NDA dominance

The nominations, filed yesterday, pit five NDA heavyweights against Singh’s solo bid from the Opposition. Leading the pack is chief minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United), who is eyeing a shift to the Upper House. He’s joined by BJP national president Nitin Nabin, Union minister Ram Nath Thakur (also from JD(U) and aiming for a third term), RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha (seeking re-election), and BJP’s Shivesh Kumar, a former MLA making his Rajya Sabha debut. With scrutiny set for March 7 and withdrawals possible until March 9, insiders say the NDA might push for a last-minute pullout to avoid the ballot, but Singh’s resolve appears firm.

At stake is the math in Bihar’s 243-member Assembly, where each candidate needs at least 41 MLA votes to secure a seat. The NDA bloc—comprising BJP’s 89 legislators, JD(U)’s 85, LJP (Ram Vilas)’s 19, HAM-S’s 5 and RLM’s 4—totals 202, just shy of the 205 required for a clean sweep of all five spots. That leaves them scrambling for at least three more votes from outside allies or independents. On the other hand, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) holds 35 seats (RJD 25, Congress 6, Left parties 3 and IIP 1), but Singh is banking on alliances with the five AIMIM MLAs and the lone BSP representative to hit the magic number and snag one seat for the Opposition.

RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari struck an optimistic note, insisting talks with AIMIM and BSP were progressing. “We’re building a secular front here, and our candidate has the backing to pull through,” he told HT. Yet, AIMIM state president Akhtarul Iman was less enthusiastic, hinting at frustration over the RJD’s approach. “They should’ve looped us in before jumping in. No one has reached out yet—it looks like the RJD has some backroom deal with the NDA for a walkover,” Iman said, leaving his party’s support hanging in the balance.

Congress leader Rajesh Rathore, meanwhile, predicted a graceful NDA retreat, perhaps to ease Nitish Kumar’s exit from the CM’s chair without a fight. “Bihar has seen unopposed RS picks under Nitish Kumar’s regime as CM. Why risk it now?” he quipped, recalling smoother times.

But political watchers aren’t so sure. Analyst Rama Shankar Arya pointed to vulnerabilities within the NDA, particularly around Kushwaha’s bid. “If they leave him to fend for those extra votes, it could backfire. Singh has not jumped in here to lose. H is the wealthiest contender and knows how to play the game,” Arya said. He drew parallels to the 2014 by-elections for two Rajya Sabha seats, when voting became inevitable under then-CM Jitan Ram Manjhi after vacancies from Lok Sabha wins by leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan, Rajiv Pratap Rudy and Ram Kripal Yadav. Then JD(U) president Sharad Yadav was earlier elected unopposed on the seat vacated by Ram Vilas Paswan, while other two went for the by-polls later.

In that 2014 contest, 230 of Bihar’s 232 effective MLAs turned out to vote on June 19, with no party whips in play per election commission rules. What followed was a messy display of cross-voting that exposed fractures across lines. JD(U) dissidents claimed 22 of their own defied orders, while two RJD MLAs and a pair from Congress reportedly jumped ship. The race featured JD(U)’s Pawan Varma and Gulam Rasool Balyawi against independents Anil Sharma and Sabir Ali, the latter backed by BJP and rebels.

Later, Sharma and Ali alleged foul play and claimed their respective party leaders betrayed them. Though results favored the incumbents amid the chaos, the episode highlighted how fragile alliances can crumble under pressure, especially in a no-whip scenario. Arya warned similar cracks could appear now, eyeing LJP (RV) MLAs as potential wild cards despite their leader Sanjay Singh’s assurances of loyalty. “His (Sanjay Singh’s) statements have fallen flat earlier. He had predicted that the Congress would face defection after Kharmas, but nothing happened,” Arya added.