Cyclone, WD likely to affect winter season this year: IMD
Due to the upcoming cyclone in the Bay of Bengal and the possible formation of western disturbance (WD) in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal due to which, central India, including Maharashtra, is likely to experience above-normal minimum temperatures between December and February
The winter season this year is likely to be adversely impacted by the upcoming cyclone in the Bay of Bengal and the possible formation of western disturbance (WD) in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal due to which, central India, including Maharashtra, is likely to experience above-normal minimum temperatures between December and February with little chances of a cold wave during the season. This information was given by Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, India Meteorological Department (IMD), during a virtual press conference organised Friday on the monthly outlook for temperature and rainfall this winter.
Mohapatra said, “Depression has formed in the Bay of Bengal. It will intensify into ‘Cyclone Michaung’ by December 2. The movement of the cyclone is north to northwest and it will have an impact on Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas. As a result, the central part of the country will be impacted by temperature. Some areas will witness light to moderate rainfall while most areas will experience cloudy weather. The minimum temperature will remain above normal level during this period.”
“Moreover, there is a possibility of the formation of a western disturbance in the later period, which will also affect the winter season this year. As a result, the minimum temperature will remain above normal level throughout the winter season. The impact will be more on the central parts of the country including the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Some areas in south peninsular India will also experience similar conditions and these areas are likely to receive rainfall during the winter season,” said Mohapatra.
Meanwhile, the country experienced the third highest heavy rainfall activities in the last five years in November 2023. As per data, the highest heavy rainfall activities (168) were recorded in 2021; the second highest heavy rainfall activities (98) in 2020; and the third highest heavy rainfall activities (42) in November 2023. Maharashtra too experienced around 10 to 13 heavy rainfall activities, especially in the Marathwada and southern Maharashtra region. Such activities are likely to continue in December as there is a possibility of the formation of systems like cyclones, western disturbance, and low-pressure areas. Vineet Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), tweeted that for the first time after 2018, all three months after the monsoon namely, October, November, and December will see a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.
2023 likely the warmest in the last 170 years
“The global mean near-surface temperature in 2023 (up to October) was around 1.40 degrees Celsius above the average temperature between 1850 and 1900. Based on the data till October, it is virtually certain that 2023 will be the warmest year in the 174-year observance on record, surpassing the previous joint warmest years namely: 2016 at 1.29 degrees Celsius above the average temperature, and 2020 at 1.27 degrees Celsius above the average temperature. This year, the temperature was above normal level by one to three degrees Celsius. The department is yet to declare it officially as we are waiting for the entire year’s data. Also, 2015 to 2023, will be the nine warmest years on record,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra..