Monsoon may start withdrawal journey early this year: Experts
Experts also said that there is much less possibility of good rainfall in Maharashtra in the coming days
Not only did the southwest monsoon arrive late this year but may also begin its withdrawal journey early according to weather experts. There are indications of an early withdrawal of the monsoon – possibly in the second week of September – from western Rajasthan, according to them. The experts also said that there is much less possibility of good rainfall in Maharashtra in the coming days. The monsoon’s late arrival and weak conditions have led to below-normal rainfall in many parts of the country this year.
Madhvan Rajeevan Nair, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, “There are now signals of an early withdrawal but there are a lot of uncertainties as well. Maybe there will be a clearer scenario in the first week of September.”
Vineet Kumar, former researcher at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and research scientist at Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea, said, “Extended range forecast indicates that the monsoon may withdraw from west Rajasthan in the second week of September. As per the latest IMD-GFS forecast, west Rajasthan is unlikely to see any rain during the next 10 days. The IMD extended range forecast also indicates that Maharashtra is unlikely to see bumper rain at least till the second week of September. So, overall conditions in interior Maharashtra will deteriorate.”
Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom, said, “Studies state that in an El Nino year, the monsoon is relatively less. Although there are a few instances of good rainfall after the commencement of the monsoon withdrawal journey, general observation states that overall rainfall activities are subdued in a majority of cases. It will be too early to forecast the scenario for this year. However, the overall observations suggest that there is less chance of good rainfall in September which may adversely affect sectors such as agriculture, groundwater, and the overall rainfall count.”
According to Susmitha Joseph, deputy project director, Extended Range Prediction (ERPAS), (IITM), as of August 23, 2023, all India monsoon rainfall is at 7% of its long-period average. The first half of August 2023 witnessed a very long break spell in rainfall. Research indicates that long break spells within a monsoon season can result in a deficient monsoon.
According to experts, El Nino is impacting the development of the monsoon due to which a major part of the country continues to be on the negative side of the monsoon. The month of July brought good rains but in the latter days, except for the Himalayan region, the rest of the country is still awaiting a good spell of rain. While El-Nino conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean are not favourable for the monsoon, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are developing in the Indian Ocean which are known to favour monsoon activity over the country. A better picture will emerge as we get closer to September.