India vs New Zealand: Who is likely to win T20 World Cup final and why — Selection decisions, venue factor, recent form

Defending champions India face New Zealand in the T20 World Cup final, on Sunday. For the hosts, Jasprit Bumrah will be key and focus will be on playing XIs.

Updated on: Mar 8, 2026, 07:26:41 IST

Written by Neelav Chakravarti

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Led by Suryakumar Yadav, India take on New Zealand in the T20 World Cup final in Ahmedabad on Sunday. Also, the defending champions, India, need to fix two things going into the final against Mitchell Santner's side: Abhishek Sharma and Varun Chakaravarthy's poor form. The pair are the world's No. 1 players in batting and bowling, but have been out of form lately. Abhishek has registered only 89 runs in eight games, and Chakaravarthy has been exposed in the Super 8 stage and the semifinal.

Defending champions India are the favourites as they take on New Zealand in the T20 World Cup final.

But their poor form has been hidden by Sanju Samson's resurgence and by the wins against West Indies and England. Suryakumar Yadav has shown his leadership abilities, especially his bowling changes in the semifinal, as India went on to defend 45 runs off the last 18 balls. Also, Harry Brook's drop of Samson proved decisive. Samson went on to get 89 against England in the semis.

Also Read: Suryakumar Yadav dismisses concerns over Varun Chakaravarthy’s form ahead of T20 World Cup final: ‘He’s world’s No. 1'

For New Zealand, openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert will be key. India will need to break the opening pair early; otherwise, if they get going, they could cause utter destruction to the hosts' bowling lineup. The New Zealand batting order is expected to be front and back-loaded, and their middle order hasn't been consistent. India could use Jasprit Bumrah in the beginning and then in the death overs, as Santner is equally destructive with the bat at the backend.

Venue factor

It is expected to be a high-scoring contest, considering the plethora of batting talent on both sides. The pitch is expected to have a mix of red and black soil, which will lead to plenty of runs. But the players will also be wary of the dew factor, which has impacted many matches in this tournament.

Since 2024, the surface in Ahmedabad has also favoured the chasing side (5-3).

Head-to-head

India leads 16-11 in head-to-head against New Zealand in T20Is. Three matches have ended in ties. India has never beaten New Zealand in T20 World Cups, losing three matches in the tournament's history.

Form guide

India (Last five matches): W, L, W, W, W

New Zealand (Last five matches): W, AB, W, L, W

India are the favourites, and also defeated New Zealand in a recent bilateral series before the World Cup. They are also the defending champions. The hosts have won every match in this tournament except for the Super 8 game against South Africa. After their defeat against South Africa, they beat Zimbabwe and the West Indies in must-win matches, then beat England in the semifinals.

New Zealand have had a topsy-turvy campaign, and somehow reached the semifinals. They lost to South Africa in the group stage and then to England in the Super 8s. But then in the semifinal, they found their groove, beating South Africa.

Selection decisions

Abhishek Sharma is expected to remain in the playing XI for India. Suryakumar Yadav also explained Sanju Samson's return in the pre-match press conference by stating that he liked the pair's partnership with Ishan Kishan at the top of the order.

But Varun Chakaravarthy's poor form has become a problem. Against England in the semifinal, he returned with figures of 1/64 in four overs. Meanwhile, Jacob Bethell smacked him for 41 off 13 balls. Due to his good form in the group stage, he is the joint-highest wicket-taker in the tournament with 13 dismissals from eight matches and an economy rate of 8.86. There have been speculations and reports about Kuldeep Yadav replacing Varun, or Washington Sundar getting a shot, or Mohammed Siraj getting a shot. But Suryakumar didn't hint towards any such change during the press conference.

In the semifinal against South Africa, James Neesham was used as a No. 9 with the ball. He conceded 42 runs in three overs, and New Zealand had to rely on Rachin Ravindra's four overs, where he took two wickets and conceded 29 runs. Ravindra also took the crucial wicket of David Willer. We could see Jacob Duffy replace Neesham. But the Ahmedabad pitch is also batting-friendly, and Santner might stick with the same XI that beat South Africa.

Jasprit Bumrah vs Daryl Mitchell

Also, the battle between Jasprit Bumrah and Daryl Mitchell will be a decisive factor. Mitchell has been silent throughout this tournament. He hardly batted in the group stage and was average in the Super 8s. He was key in New Zealand's first ODI series win in India in January, so he is still key for Santner. Against Bumrah, he has scored at 2.0 per over in internationals and 10.18 per over overall. If he finds his form against Bumrah, he could go on to get a big score.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Neelav Chakravarti
Neelav Chakravarti has been part of the digital sports team at Hindustan Times since 2022, where he covers a wide range of disciplines, including chess, cricket, football, and Olympic sports. Working in a fast-paced digital newsroom, he regularly handles live blogs, breaking updates, and trending stories, combining speed with clarity to keep readers informed in real time. Chess remains both a professional beat and a personal passion for Neelav, and he closely tracks major international tournaments, player narratives, and emerging talents. He is particularly fascinated by the patience, calculation, and strategic depth the game demands, often exploring the psychological side of competition in his writing. Beyond sports journalism, Neelav has a deep interest in visual storytelling and filmmaking, actively participating in film festivals and engaging with independent cinema. He is especially drawn to films that capture the subtleties of everyday life and human relationships, appreciating storytelling that balances realism with emotional depth. This creative interest complements his approach to sports coverage, where he enjoys highlighting the human stories behind performances and results. A history enthusiast by academic training, Neelav holds a bachelor’s degree in the subject and maintains a sustained interest in ancient and medieval Indian history, particularly in cultural and social transitions across eras. His curiosity about the past often shapes his perspective on contemporary narratives and long-form storytelling. When he isn’t tracking scores or developing storylines, Neelav enjoys spending time over the chessboard, relaxing with his cats, or listening to the Empire podcast by Anita Anand and William Dalrymple. He also enjoys reading long-form sports writing that explores the emotional and cultural layers of sport, while maintaining a quiet routine that balances reading, reflection, and occasional time with friends.Read More

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