Pakistan’s boycott nothing but a hollow threat to ICC; strong chance they’ll play India in marquee T20 World Cup clash

The Pakistan government may have announced its stance of boycotting T20 World Cup match against India, but don't rule out a U-turn in the next couple of days.

Sunday evenings are meant to be calm, sedate, chilled out. Time with family, maybe a movie and a relaxed late dinner, and a brief lookahead to the week ahead are primary on the agenda of most people. But not on the Pakistan government’s, it would appear.

The ICC has warned Pakistan, and the ball is now in PCB's court (AFP Images)

Even as its Under-19 team adopted a bizarre approach in the World Cup clash against India in Bulawayo, opting for a pyrrhic victory against the neighbours instead of making even a token push for a steep target that their semifinal aspirations demanded – neither goal was achieved, as it turned out – the Pakistan government announced on X that while the senior side would travel to Sri Lanka to honour its T20 World Cup commitments, it would not play co-hosts India in Colombo on February 15.

At the time of writing, there was no official communication towards this end from the Pakistan Cricket Board to the International Cricket Council, but that didn’t prevent the latter from putting out a strongly worded reaction that stopped short of being a serious ultimatum, though the mention of ‘consequences’ won’t have been lost on anyone.

The terse and ambiguous communique from the Pakistan government doesn’t outline the reasons behind its move to boycott the India game. Utterances in the recent past do provide a window to the official line of thinking – this move is in solidarity with Bangladesh, whose 11th-hour demand for their matches to be moved out of India and to Sri Lanka on security grounds was brushed aside by the governing body.

That Bangladesh waited until Kolkata Knight Riders terminated Mustafizur Rehman’s IPL contract at the behest of the Board of Control for Cricket in India to ask for a change in venue is the most concrete proof that their call was influenced by ego and a knee-jerk, tit-for-tat policy than any real, tangible threat to the national side. Their bluff called, Bangladesh now have time to reflect on the ramifications of their absence, something that Pakistan too will have contemplated overnight, following the ICC’s clearly annoyed statement.

Why a Pakistan U-turn is likely

Pakistan have accused the world body of ‘double standards’ by allowing India not to play their 50-over Champions Trophy matches in Pakistan last year and instead according them the luxury of being based entirely in Dubai. Isn’t that what is happening at this T20 World Cup too where India, despite being the primary co-hosts, will have to make the trip to Sri Lanka, where Pakistan have been given the privilege of playing all their games? What’s it they say about people, glass houses and stones?

One isn’t sure how much thought and rationale has gone behind this ‘boycott India’ approach that is certain to have seismic outcomes if saner counsel doesn’t prevail in Pakistani decision-making circles in the next couple of days. The World Cup itself will be affected to a great deal because no matter if this has become a lop-sided rivalry, India-Pakistan clashes continue to attract eyeballs and immense commercial interest. A conservative early estimate has pegged the financial loss to the host broadcaster in the region of ₹200 to ₹250 crore, but for Pakistan, there will be other, graver issues to consider.

There will be repercussions, both in the immediate term in the form of forfeiture of points and their net run rate taking a pounding, but also from a longer-vision perspective. There will be financial penalties and potentially other fallouts which will not be just a token slap on the wrist. Once the dust settles, which ought to be as early as now, the PCB in particular would do well to consider the follies of keeping away from the February 15 encounter. The financial fallout alone will put the Pakistan Super League, among other things, in jeopardy while fresh doubts will be triggered over the feasibility of teams travelling to Pakistan for bilateral faceoffs.

Pakistan and Pakistan cricket have a lot more to lose than the T20 World Cup, and the ICC and the BCCI, if they stick adamantly to their myopic stance and surrender the two points to India without taking the field. It’s possible they might have thought they had the pull to dare the ICC, but that tack has fallen flat on its face. Pakistan can still portray rare prudence and unearth a face-saving way out of a conundrum of their own making if they are able to read the clear and obvious writing on the wall, but for that, posturing and one-upmanship must be put on the backburner. And that comes with no guarantee.

It is in everyone’s best interests, not least the PCB and the Pakistan national team, for the Colombo showdown two weeks hence to be settled on the field of play. But whether whoever is advising the decision-makers has everyone’s best interests at heart is the million-dollar question.