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Sowing of summer crops down as rain deficit triggers drought fears
Millions of farmers wait for the rains to begin sowing of summer crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, and oilseeds. Half of India’s farm output depends on summer crops.
A patchy start to the monsoon has impacted sowing of key summer crops as parched conditions have spread rapidly to nearly half the states, raising fears of a widespread drought, according to data from the agriculture ministry and senior government officials.
Millions of farmers wait for the rains to begin sowing of summer crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, and oilseeds. Half of India’s farm output depends on summer crops.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon was 45% deficient till June 12. The June-September rains, which power the farm economy, should have advanced up to central Indian states by the first half of June. But the rainbearing system has been mostly confined to parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu after a delayed onset on June 8. The monsoon has yet to drench states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, where farm operations could suffer if the rains don’t revive.
According to agriculture min
istry data, until June 14, sowing of summer crops lags by 8.8% overall, compared to last year’s corresponding levels. Farmers have been able to sow 8.2 million hectares so far, compared to 9 million hectares sown in 2018 by this time of the kharif or summer-sown season. Planting of rice, a summer staple, has been lower by 22%, while pulses are down by more than 50% compared to 2018, the data showed. Sugarcane sowing lags by 2.3%.
Private weather forecaster Skymet on Monday said it expected the monsoon to be “below normal”. It said chances of the El Nino weather phenomenon was 60% between June and August.
The rains are critical because nearly half of all Indians depend on a farm-based income and 60% of the country’s net-sown area does not have any form of irrigation.
A large rainfall deficiency in June, the first month of the monsoon, means showers have to be robust in the subsequent months if India has to escape a significant drought, according to weather experts. “This deficiency is no doubt high, but to make up for the deficit, rainfall has to be at least close to normal during July and August,” said Ajit Tyagi, a former director general of IMD.
According to IMD, nearly 17 meteorological subdivisions, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, have a rainfall deficiency of 20%, while states such as Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have reported up to 62% deficit rains. “Roughly, a deficiency of between 15-20% will result in a stressful situation depending on local conditions,” Tyagi said.
For a robust farm output, July and August are the most critical months. “Rainfall during these two months is what really makes a difference. We need to wait and watch. The good thing is there is ample buffer stock of foodgrains,” said DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd, a ratings firm.
Paddy sowing has been slow in states such as Assam, Karnataka and Kerala, the official data showed. Farmers have been also slow in sowing pulses in Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. Overall, the area under rice is currently smaller by 0.006 million hectares, while the pulses crop has seen a larger deficit. In terms of acreage, the total area under summer pulses is down by 0.151 million hectares. The oilseeds area has been less by 0.102 million hectares.
Robust summer rains, which account for 70% of India’s total annual rainfall, can spur rural spending on most items as well as generate demand in other sectors of the economy. India needs robust farm growth to alleviate its current agrarian distress marked by falling farm commodity prices. The country’s rate of gross domestic product (GDP) grew at its slowest pace in five years at 5.8% during the JanMarch quarters, mainly due to negative growth in the agriculture sector in the last quarter.
