Assembly polls: Key takeaways

Public health is now key in planning; Modi’s popularity is intact; low turnout is a challenge. To deepen democracy and ensure that this fundamental right can be exercised by all citizens, this needs to change

In a little over a month, about a fifth of India’s population has voted to elect their lawmakers and next government, an exercise that ends with the seventh phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh on Monday. The votes will be counted on March 10, marking arguably the most important day in Indian politics till the 2024 general election, but the weeks-long campaign holds some takeaways.

A polling officer carries an Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) and other election material, a day before the seventh and last phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, March 6, 2022 (PTI)

One, public health is now a key cog in election planning. The relatively smooth poll season, in which the Election Commission progressively relaxed curbs on physical campaigning, stood in stark contrast to the Delta-ravaged round of state elections in 2021. The elections were announced in the shadow of the third wave of the pandemic, but the high rates of vaccination -- India has administered one dose of the vaccine to at least 95% of the population over the age of 15 and fully vaccinated around 80% — ensured that pandemic didn’t affect voting.

Second, the results of the election are definitely important to gauge alignments in Indian politics but will only have a limited tangible impact on national politics. It will show how much, if at all, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s rainbow Hindu coalition has been eroded by anti incumbency, localised factors and Opposition parties. The results will also be important to determine whether the Congress remains the dominant pole of national opposition politics -- if it does poorly in head-to-head contests with the BJP or fails to retain Punjab, expect clamour over federal fronts and new experiments to intensify. But with Prime Minister Narendra Modi remaining far and away the most popular national leader, and voters increasingly making distinct choices between national and state elections, the results may only give limited insights into the 2024 election.

Third, despite increased commentary around the marginally depressed turnout this election, there exists little empirical correlation between voter turnout and electoral fortunes of political parties. Voting percentages in India are steadily rising and the Election Commission’s efforts to include marginalised groups such as disabled people and trans communities have shown results, but India’s most-populous state continues to report a relatively low turnout. Experts have linked this to high migration, poverty and low literacy levels, and socioeconomic barriers in accessing voting documents and the right to exercise their franchise. To deepen democracy and ensure that this fundamental right can be exercised by all citizens, this needs to change.