Number Theory: The state of play in UP’s high-stakes bypoll battle

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Nine assembly constituencies (ACs) in Uttar Pradesh will go to the polls on 13 November. The election in one more AC, Milkipur, has not been announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) ostensibly because of an ongoing court case. Since Uttar Pradesh gave one of the most surprising verdicts in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, and given the state’s importance in national politics (it sends the most representatives to the Lok Sabha), these bypolls are seen as a political weather vane of how things stand before the 2027 assembly elections.

Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath (HT File Phot/Raj K Raj)

INDIA bloc won a majority in these ACs in 2024

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  INDIA bloc won a majority in these ACs in 2024

  The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) won 43 out of 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha. An analysis of the results by assembly constituency (AC) shows that among these 10 ACs, the INDIA bloc secured seven seats (six for the Samajwadi Party and one for the Congress). Were these victories a major upset by the SP-led alliance or in keeping with the 2022 results on these ACs? In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP won 5 of these ACs, while the BJP won 3. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) -- it was a part of the SP alliance -- and Nishad Party each bagged one seat.
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  Between 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NDA lost vote share in all these 10 ACs

  An analysis of the NDA’s vote share in 10 key assembly constituencies (ACs) between 2019 and 2024 shows a decline in all 10 ACs in 2024 compared to 2019. The median reduction in vote share is 5.83 percentage points. The most significant reduction was observed in Khair, with a drop of 19.6 percentage points, followed by Phulpur and Majahwan at 11.5 and 10.8 percentage points respectively. The least reduction was in the Milkipur and Kundarki ACs, at 1.51 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. An AC-wise breakup of the 2019 Lok Sabha results shows that the NDA won 4 out of these 10 ACs while the SP-BSP alliance won 5 of them. The SP-led alliance gained votes in 6 of these 10 ACs between the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while it lost votes in the remaining 4 ACs.
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  Are any of these ACs strongholds of some party?

  An analysis of three assembly election results in 2012, 2017, and 2022 shows that the SP won Karhal, Kundarki and Sisamau ACs three times, while it won Milkipur and Katehari twice. The BJP won Ghaziabad, Khair and Phulpur in 2017 and 2022 but there are no ACs in this list which it has won every time in the last three assembly elections. To be sure, the BJP won 7 and 3 out of these 10 ACs in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a much better record than its performance in the last two assembly elections (and in 2024).
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  Will the BSP play a role?

  Unlike its usual practice of not contesting bypolls, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has decided to field candidates in all the 10 ACs. What does it 2024 performance tell about the future prospects of BSP? An AC-wise analysis shows that BSP finished third in all these 10 ACs in the Lok Sabha elections. A comparison with its 2022 assembly elections performance in these 10 ACs shows that BSP lost vote share in 9 out these 10 ACs, except in Meerapur, between 2022 and 2024. It gained vote share in Meerapur where it polled 28.2% of the votes in the Lok Sabha elections. While the BSP’s vote share was less than 10% in four of these ACs in 2024 and three of them in the 2022 elections, it is important to underline the fact that its vote share was more than the victory margin in 6 of these ACs in 2024 and 4 in 2022. While the SP and the BJP alliance (BJP and NISHAD party) were equally affected by the BSP’s spoiler-play in 2022, the BJP was the bigger loser in 2024. The BJP lost 4 of these 10 ACs because of the BSP playing spoiler while the SP lost 2.