Malaysian state elections: Was it a national referendum?
This article is authored by S. Narayan, former associate, Centre for Peace and Development.
On August 12, six of the 11 states of Malaysia headed to polls to elect their provincial governments. This election was closely watched for a number of reasons, beginning with the fact that it was seen as a referendum on the national government headed by Prime Minister (PM) Anwar Ibrahim. This is so as the state elections came nine months after the November 2022 national elections. The second reason is that all six states are in western Malaysia, a region that dominates the nation’s polity and economy, accounting for more than 40% of the national Gross Domestic Product with Selangor alone contributing a quarter of the national pie. Thus, the election results had the potential to reshape the nation’s political discourse.

In numerical terms, the 245 constituencies in these six states with an electorate of almost 10 million are home to almost half the total national electorate, a little over 21 million. Of the 10-million voters, a million were first-time voters. However, it was a split verdict. The official national opposition party, Perikatan Nasional (PN) secured a majority in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. The Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance, which is part of the national unity government of PM Anwar Ibrahim at the federal-level, won in the states of Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.
Since Independence in 1957 and until 2018 elections, the political landscape had continuously been dominated by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which along with its allies’ led government, both at the federal and state levels. Owing to this, simultaneous elections were held at the national and provincial levels, and the results used to favour the UMNO, with the result national politics revolved around the party.
It was only after the exit of the UMNO government in 2018 that the political landscape started to undergo a metamorphosis. With that also came political instability, and divisions within the electorate became prominent. Resultantly, participation of the players from both ends of the political spectrum too gained prominence, with issues like Malay / non-Malay differences, along with inequality, corruption, economy and employment made it to the forefront. Anwar Ibrahim had led his party, PH, in the 2022 general elections on this plank, even when conservative voices were both catering to and securing their support-base. This electoral consolidation resulted in a hung Parliament in 2022, and the resulted in the incumbent PH-BN coalition government, along with other smaller parties.
The state election results were on expected lines. Between the two, the opposition PN and the ruling PH-BN combine were expected to retain the provinces that they had won the last time round. However, the results of the state elections were largely one-sided owing to the wider victory margins even though voting pattern by and large mirrored the 2022 general elections.
However, there is a significant change in the swing in the voting pattern. The victory margin of PN is significantly higher than that of the PH-BN combine. In the Terengganu province, the PN bagged all 32 constituencies. In Kelantan, the PN won 43 of the 45 seats, and in Kedah 33 of 36 seats. For the PN-BN combine, the seat-margin is far narrower. Of the total 132 seats in Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan, which it retained, the PH-BN combine won only in 94 seats when PN secured the remaining 38 seats.
The election result could be attributed to the nature and character of the post-poll alliance, between two political rivals, namely, the PH and the BN, to avoid a constitutional deadlock in a ‘hung’ Parliament late last year. The BN, for long, was junior partner in the UMNO and shared a similar pro-Malay political platform, whereas the relatively new PH projected itself as a reformist, secular party. Thus, there was an inherent contradiction between the two and their respective electoral bases. On the other hand, the PN, another new party, represented the pro-Malay sections of the society and also gained support from the conservative Muslim polity. This divide played out in the state elections.
One of the crucial aspects of this election was its impact at the national-level. It was speculated that the polls would determine the course of national politics. It has been speculated that junior partners of PM Anwar Ibrahim would be called upon to decide on their continuance of support for the coalition government. A split-verdict that is in reminiscent of the previous state polls gives little reason for the national coalition to collapse.
However, given the polarisation of the electorate, issues of identity would come to dominate politics in Malaysia more than any time in the past. This, when taken with the prevailing economic slowdown -- with the current quarter registering a growth-rate of only 2.9%, the lowest in two years - could further complicate the political landscape. Thus, for the foreseeable future the politics of Malaysia would be turbulent irrespective of the stability of the national unity government. All parties, big and small, would strive to consolidate their support-base. The second reason is that given the compelling circumstances in which political parties were forced to form a coalition government would also imply that they would play to the gallery. This can worsen the inherent crisis, which they have since glossed over without resolving it.
This article is authored by S. Narayan, former associate, Centre for Peace and Development.
