Near-term changes in US policy on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-West Asia conflicts
This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
The United States (US) currently finds itself at the centre of two significant geopolitical crises: The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the escalating conflict between Israel and Palestine in West Asia. These conflicts have profound implications for US foreign policy, global alliances, and international stability. While US responses to these crises have been assertive, any near-term shifts in policy will depend on a delicate balance of strategic objectives, domestic pressures, and evolving circumstances on the ground.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the US has been Ukraine’s most prominent supporter. Washington has provided substantial military, economic, and humanitarian aid, totalling over $61 billion in 2024 alone. This support includes advanced weaponry such as long-range rockets and air defence systems, ensuring that Ukraine remains militarily resilient against Russian aggression. President Biden’s administration has emphasised that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable, refusing to pressure Kyiv into making territorial concessions to Moscow.
Despite strong bipartisan support initially, domestic challenges to continued aid are growing. Some Republican lawmakers have raised concerns about the long-term financial burden, especially with the 2024 elections on the horizon. Meanwhile, a segment of the American public is questioning the extent of US involvement, given pressing domestic issues. Internationally, the US faces challenges in rallying non-western nations to align with its position, as many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America remain neutral, prioritising economic ties with both Russia and the West.
In the near term, US policy is unlikely to undergo significant changes. The Biden administration is expected to continue military and economic support for Ukraine, recognising its importance in countering autocratic aggression and defending the rules-based international order. However, there may be increased Congressional scrutiny over how aid is allocated and utilised, reflecting domestic political pressures. While peace negotiations are not currently prioritised, any prolonged stalemate on the battlefield may prompt discussions about diplomatic solutions.
The US response to the Israel-Palestine conflict has been shaped by its deep alliance with Israel. Following the October 2024 Hamas attacks, the US reaffirmed its unwavering support for Israel’s right to self-defence. Military aid, including advanced air defence systems, was expedited to bolster Israel’s security.
This conflict poses unique challenges for US policymakers. Domestically, there is rising criticism from progressive voices and segments of the public regarding the humanitarian impact of Israeli military actions in Gaza. Internationally, the US must navigate strained relations with Arab nations, which have condemned the civilian toll in Gaza. The risk of the conflict escalating into a broader regional war looms large, further complicating US strategic calculations.
In the short term, US policy will likely focus on mitigating the risks of regional escalation while maintaining robust support for Israel. Diplomatic engagement with regional players such as Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will also be critical to containing the conflict and preserving U.S. influence in the region.
Both the Ukraine and West Asia conflicts are testing US foreign policy on multiple fronts, but the nature of the challenges differs. Ukraine represents a direct challenge to European security and the international order, making it a strategic priority for the US and its NATO allies. In contrast, the Israel-Palestine conflict has broader implications for US credibility in West Asia and its ability to mediate between conflicting parties.
Domestically, both conflicts face scrutiny amid concerns about the financial costs of prolonged engagements. While public and bipartisan support for Ukraine remains relatively strong, the Israel-Palestine conflict is drawing more polarised reactions due to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Internationally, the US must balance its alliances and avoid alienating key partners. In Ukraine, this means rallying NATO and European Union allies while countering Russian influence globally. In West Asia, it involves managing relations with both Israel and Arab nations, a complex task given the region’s historical and geopolitical sensitivities.
The simultaneous handling of these crises highlights the strain on US resources and its ability to act as a global leader. Balancing commitments in Europe and West Asia will require careful prioritisation and coordination. Prolonged engagement in both regions risks overextension, particularly as the US also seeks to address challenges posed by China in the Indo-Pacific.
Maintaining strong alliances will be crucial for US strategy. In Europe, continued NATO unity will depend on sustained American leadership. In West Asia, preserving relationships with both Israel and Arab nations will require nuanced diplomacy. Additionally, the US must remain vigilant about the global implications of its actions, as adversaries like China and Iran are closely observing its ability to manage multiple crises simultaneously.
In the near-term, US policies on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine conflicts are unlikely to see dramatic shifts. The Biden administration will focus on sustaining support for Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and democracy while navigating the complexities of West Asia to support Israel and address humanitarian concerns. However, evolving dynamics—whether on the battlefield, in domestic politics, or through international diplomacy—may necessitate strategic recalibrations. Successfully managing these crises will be critical for maintaining US global influence and upholding its foreign policy objectives in an increasingly multipolar world.
This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
