Trump's puzzling Pakistan pivot

This article is authored by Prabhu Dayal, former ambassador, New Delhi.

It may be recalled that during his first term as President, Donald Trump had tweeted on January 1, 2018 that the US had "foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit". He accused the Pakistan army of providing "safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan".

US President Donald Trump.(AFP)

In his second term, Donald Trump has adopted a completely different approach toward Pakistan, a dramatic shift from his first term. At the recent Gaza peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, President Trump publicly referred to General Asim Munir as his "favourite Field Marshal". Trump has displayed a remarkably warm and friendly relationship with the Pakistan's army chief. This coincides with a significant shift from his earlier stance toward Pakistan and has been highlighted by several recent events and public comments.

Earlier in the year, Trump hosted Munir at the White House on two occasions. On June 18, Trump held an unprecedented lunch meeting with Munir, the first time a US president had hosted Pakistan's military chief at the White House without civilian leadership present. Later, on September 25 Trump hosted both Munir and Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif, a key sign of the rapidly improving US-Pakistan relations.

Following a border conflict between India and Pakistan in May, Trump praised Munir for acknowledging his role in de-escalating tensions. Trump said he was "honoured" by Munir's praise and quoted the general as saying that he (Trump) had "saved millions of lives" by preventing the war from escalating. Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize after he claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May 2025. This was part of a larger campaign to appeal to Trump's personal ego. Pakistan nominated Trump for the prize again in October 2025, this time for his role in securing a Gaza ceasefire.

Trump's personal business interests are certainly playing a pivotal role in shaping his policy towards Pakistan. These interests primarily involve ventures related to cryptocurrency and potential deals for rare earth mineral exploration.

There is increasing evidence that Trump recognises the powerful role of Pakistan's army chief and is leveraging this relationship to advance his financial interests. As the head of Pakistan's military, Munir offers an opportunity for direct dealings, which fits Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy.

In April 2025, a finance platform called World Liberty Financial (WLF) signed a Letter of Intent with the newly-formed Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) to accelerate blockchain innovation and the integration of decentralised finance. The deal-making was reportedly attended by high-profile Pakistani officials, including PM Shehbaz Sharif and army chief General Asim Munir. Interestingly, WLF is reportedly 60% owned by Donald Trump's sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. In addition, reports have surfaced about potential negotiations between the Trump Organization and a Pakistani tycoon to develop a Trump Tower in Islamabad.

Following Trump's meeting with Munir on June 18 2025, his administration announced its intention to help Pakistan develop its untapped oil and mineral reserves. Three months later, in September, Pakistan's Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) signed a $500 million Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Missouri-based US Strategic Metals (USSM). The Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) is a military-engineering organization of the Pakistan army which constructs infrastructure projects like highways and tunnels. This is an important US investment in Pakistan's critical minerals sector, positioning Pakistan as a new strategic resource supplier for the US.

Pakistan's main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has condemned the agreement, labelling it a "secret deal" and demanding that the government disclose the full details. The involvement of the Frontier Works Organisation FWO has been a major source of controversy. Some commentators see its central role in the deal as an indication of the Pakistan military's deep entrenchment in what is essentially the civilian government's responsibility. Opposition political groups have criticised secretive mineral deals with the U.S., warning that such agreements could "inflame the already volatile situation".

These developments indicate how Trump is getting involved in Pakistan's 'milbus' or 'military's business' syndrome. Milbus refers to the military's vast, unaccountable, and non-transparent business empire. This military capital is used for the personal benefit of the armed forces' leadership but is not recorded in the official defence budget. The milbus provides the military with financial autonomy and increases its interest in maintaining political power.

The term milbus was coined by analyst Ayesha Siddiqa in her 2007 book Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy. She estimated the military's business empire to be worth at least $20 billion at the time. Recent reports suggest this figure has grown significantly.

The milbus's foundation was laid by Pakistan's first military ruler Ayub Khan in the 1960s, but it expanded dramatically during subsequent dictatorships. The military justifies these ventures as welfare programs for its personnel, but critics point out that the benefits are disproportionately concentrated among the officer class.

The military's economic interests span nearly every sector of the Pakistani economy, making it the country's largest business conglomerate. Milbus operates through various channels: Four main military-controlled foundations—Fauji Foundation, Army Welfare Trust, Bahria Foundation, and Shaheen Foundation—manage vast business empires. The military runs a wide range of enterprises, from bakeries, farms, and petrol pumps to major industrial plants, banks, and insurance companies. It is also directly involved in institutional businesses like commercial banks like the Askari Bank, media networks, cement plants, and the National Logistics Cell (NLC), which manages transportation and toll collection.

In addition, the military is a big player in the real estate sector. The military controls significant, high-value real estate across the country, particularly through the Defence Housing Authority (DHA). Land is often acquired at subsidised rates or is granted for military service. Individual officers receive personal benefits, including valuable land and post-retirement business opportunities. The military's extensive involvement in Pakistan's economy has led to accusations of widespread corruption and self-enrichment among the top ranks.

Top generals in Pakistan have amassed immense wealth, sparking public outrage and debate over military corruption. The allegations point to lucrative land allotments, military-run businesses, and undeclared assets, with several high-profile cases involving senior officials. Journalistic investigations and leaked financial documents, such as the Pandora Papers, have revealed several Pakistani military generals and their family members who have acquired properties and other assets abroad. These disclosures have fuelled public scrutiny regarding the accumulation of wealth by the military elite in a country facing significant economic challenges.

Multiple media outlets have claimed that Asim Munir is personally profiting from his official role. It is alleged that his personal wealth is growing due to his position as army chief, which is because he is overseeing a vast military business empire. Munir acts as the CEO of this vast conglomerate and benefits from its profits.

Accusations of corruption and the accumulation of wealth by Pakistani generals are not new. After leaving office, General Pervez Musharraf spent long periods living in luxury abroad, including in Dubai and London. Reports indicate he purchased expensive apartments in London and the UAE following his retirement.

General Qamar Bajwa was the army chief in Pakistan before Asim Munir. A 2022 investigative report by journalist Ahmad Noorani alleged that General Bajwa's family rapidly amassed significant wealth, including properties abroad, during his tenure as army chief. His predecessor was General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. The Pandora Papers revealed offshore dealings involving General Kayani's brothers. Claims have also been made on social media and in some reports that Kayani owned property in Australia.

As head of the military's media wing, General Asim Saleem Bajwa was linked to an extensive business empire in the US, which included numerous Papa John's pizza franchises. A former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) official, Major General Nusrat Naeem reportedly established an offshore company in a tax haven shortly after his retirement. The military's business interests are frequently intertwined with its political influence, undermining civilian institutions.

The meetings with Trump have provided Pakistan with a diplomatic boost, following a period of strained relations with both the first Trump and Biden administrations. These interactions allow Pakistan's military to project an image of continued relevance on the world stage. Pakistan has offered economic overtures, such as a trade deal and potential deals involving its rare earth minerals. These initiatives appeal to Trump's business interests.

Trump's renewed engagement with Pakistan is seen as opportunistic and transactional. Pakistan has made itself useful to the US by offering assistance on matters like critical minerals, potentially giving it leverage. Pakistan's military is seen by Trump as a more reliable conduit for executing tactical goals than its civilian government. The warming US-Pakistan relationship under Trump has caused dismay and concern in Indian policy circles, raising doubts about the reliability of the US as a strategic partner. This unpredictability could impact India's long-term strategy, including its role in Quad partnership aimed at balancing China's influence. By prioritising temporary, transactional gains with Pakistan, Trump's approach risks harming the more vital, long-term strategic partnership with India.

This article is authored by Prabhu Dayal, former ambassador, New Delhi.