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Allies may be key for BJP in V-P and presidential polls
The BJP currently doesn’t have the required majority to push its presidential candidate alone.
The upcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the forthcoming Rajya Sabha biennial polls, and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s equations with its allies and other parties will be crucial for the party’s performance in the presidential and vice-presidential elections scheduled to be held next year, according to people aware of the developments.
As on date, the BJP doesn’t have the required majority to push its presidential candidate alone. The ruling party has 474,102 votes of the total 1,098,903 in the presidential electoral college. The halfway mark is 549,452 votes.
The President is elected by votes of MPs and MLAs in accordance with the system of proportional representation where each vote is given weightage proportionate to the population represented by the lawmaker. An MLA of Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, carries the highest weightage of 208. The value of an MP’s vote is 708.
The BJP faces two big elections in UP and Punjab before the presidential election is declared in July next year. In the UP assembly, it currently holds 305 seats, which translate to 63,440 votes in the electoral college. In Punjab, on the other hand, the BJP has just two MLAs.
Apart from a good performance in these two elections, the other factor that can help the BJP improve its standing in the presidential race would be the forthcoming Rajya Sabha biennial polls.
Between now and June 2022, 41 Rajya Sabha seats, including six nominated ones, would see elections. These seats are distributed over 13 states, including Assam, Tripura, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Chhattisgarh.
Any gains made by the BJP in these polls will further improve its chances in the presidential and vice-presidential polls.
The party is focusing on retaining Uttar Pradesh as the outcome in the state can have a major impact on its strength in the Upper House. “Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur have limited impact by way of their respective House strength, and in Punjab, the party is not expecting to do well owing to the mood on the ground about the farm legislation. That leaves only UP to focus on,” said a BJP member who asked not to be named.
In the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP is the single largest party, it is still short of majority that would reduce the party’s dependence on allies and friendly parties for passage of key and controversial bills and for eliciting support for its candidates for the presidential and vice-presidential elections. In the VP poll, only parliamentarians are entitled to a vote.
Nominated members are barred from participating in the presidential poll as they are selected by the President, but in the past seven years, many nominated MPs have given up their independent status and joined the ruling BJP, making them eligible for voting in the presidential elections.
As on date, the BJP has 94 members in the Upper House of Parliament and is hopeful of bagging more after the biennial elections are held in 2022, though it appears unlikely that the party will reach the halfway mark of 123.
It requires National Democratic Alliance partners as well as supporting parties such as AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s ruling YSR Congress Party and K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
The party has also begun working on its ties with its allies. Parties such as the Janata Dal (United), Republican Party of India, Apna Dal, Lok Janshakti Party have found a place in the Union council of ministers in an attempt to strengthen ties and address their concerns of not being given their due. The party has also made a concerted effort to smoothen ties with parties that are not NDA allies but are considered friendly parties such the YSRCP, AIADMK, BJD and TRS.
