Amid tussle for AIADMK’s helm, BJP on uneven pitch
What does the emergence of Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) as the sole leader of the AIADMK, and the expulsion of O Panneerselvam (OPS) from the party mean for its ally the Bharatiya Janata Party?
What does the emergence of Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) as the sole leader of the AIADMK, and the expulsion of O Panneerselvam (OPS) from the party mean for its ally the Bharatiya Janata Party?
On the face of it, the BJP’s response ranges from concern -- “Our wish is that AIADMK remains strong and united so that we can take on the DMK more effectively,” said one BJP leader who asked not to be named -- to neutrality. The executive committee of the party’s Tamil Nadu unit met on Sunday evening in Chennai. “Even in the meeting we discussed that we should keep out of AIADMK’s internal decisions,” said BJP state vice president K S Narendran. “We do not fish in troubled waters.”
“We do not want the anti-DMK votes to split,” added the first BJP leader.
But political experts, and even some state BJP leaders say the churn in the AIADMK has provide the BJP a golden opportunity to emerge as the main opposition voice against the ruling DMK.
The BJP was once instrumental in bringing EPS and OPS together to form the dual leadership in 2017 after J Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016. OPS has previously admitted that although the deputy chief minister’s post had no power, he agreed to take it up at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s insistence. Both leaders, especially OPS, have consulted the central leadership of the BJP and RSS idealogue S Gurumurthy in times of trouble. And the AIADMK has remained a staunch ally of the BJP in Parliament.
This has not always worked for the party. The DMK’s 2021 assembly election pitch was that the AIADMK was subservient to the BJP, and sacrificed Tamil Nadu’s rights in the bargain. Even during the campaign, chief minister M K Stalin attacked the BJP more than he did the AIADMK because the former was seen to be operating from behind the scenes.
Over the past months, there has been a war of words between AIADMK and BJP leaders over the real opposition in Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK has the numbers but in the perception battle, some BJP leaders say that increasingly they have been playing the role of the opposition. “In the assembly and outside BJP has been raising its voice against the ruling DMK. BJP is clearly growing and when the AIADMK is occupied with internal strife, our party is becoming the main voice of the people,” said a third BJP leader speaking on condition of anonymity. But not everyone in the BJP sees it that way. “BJP doesn’t need to grow at the expense of another party,” said a fourth BJP leader.
Things could change now, though. EPS is believed to be a tough negotiator. For instance, when the BJP tried to convince the AIADMK that VK Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran who floated a breakaway faction AMMK be brought into the party ahead of the 2021 election, EPS did not budge.
And the BJP is believed to prefer OPS. “BJP has had a soft corner OPS,” said political analyst Maalan Narayan. “But they will wait and watch. And if EPS can secure the votes that OPS can bring, then they will not find it a problem to back EPS.”
A divided AIADMK may not help the BJP. While EPS’ base is in western Tamil Nadu where his Gounder caste is dominant, OPS draws his strength from the southern region where the dominant caste is the Thevar community to which he and Sasikala belong. Dhinakaran’s AMMK ate into the southern vote bank of the AIADMK in the 2021 elections, helping the DMK electorally.
“So, when the three factions fight among themselves and not the rival DMK, the whole tug of war may turn communal which will be a consequence to Tamil Nadu politics -- turning it into caste-oriented politics. This will be a setback to the BJP because if caste identity becomes important then the Hindu identity will be lost,” said Narayanan.
But first, the battle will be fought before courts, he added.
“We can expect a series of litigation in courts as well as in the election commission over who the real AIADMK is, the symbol, the general secretary post, the power to remove the coordinator and joint coordinator and if the general council meeting is even legal.”
