Exit Poll results 2026 highlights: TMC, BJP workers clash at Kolkata strongroom, EC rubbishes claims

Exit Poll Results 2026 highlights: Hours after Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee urged TMC leaders, workers and polling agents to maintain a vigil over strongrooms, party candidates Kunal Ghosh and Shashi Panja staged a sit-in protest at Khudiram Anushilan Kendra on Thursday, alleging irregular activities inside the facility. The Election Commission, however, dismissed the claims regarding the handling of polled materials at the centre, asserting that all procedures were duly followed and the strongrooms remain secure.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is headed for a massive win in West Bengal, while the DMK-led alliance is set for comfortable win in Tamil Nadu, Today's Chanakya exit poll predicted on Thursday. The pollster predicted a victory for BJP-led NDA in Assam and an edge for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala, with the LDF trailing closely.

Axis My India’s exit polls for Bengal will not be published as its head Pradeep Gupta said voters are not forthcoming enough for the agency to release an exit poll.

Other exit polls published on Wednesday suggested the NDA is unlikely to make a significant impact in Kerala, with most projections keeping it below double digits and JVC offering the highest estimate at 3–7 seats. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance appears to have the upper hand, with most agencies projecting 122–145 seats, while the NDA trails and TVK emerges as a key player with widely varying estimates.

In the West Bengal exit polls for 2026, projections for the BJP vary widely across agencies. Peoples Pulse estimates the party could secure 95–110 seats, while Matrize places it higher at 146–161. P-Marq gives an even broader range of 150–175, and Poll Diary predicts 142–171 seats. JVC forecasts 138–159 seats, whereas Janmat Polls offers a more conservative estimate of 80–90. Axis My India has not released its numbers for the state.

As exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections triggered political reactions, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leader and Erode West candidate K.K. Anand Mohan on Tuesday expressed confidence that the party will secure a clear majority.

Speaking to ANI, he dismissed the relevance of exit poll predictions and said TVK founder Thalapathy Vijay would form the government on May 4 with over 150 seats. “We do not care about exit polls. Vijay will form the government with a single majority,” he said.

Most pollsters projected a close contest between the TMC and BJP in West Bengal, but Axis My India chose not to release its forecast. Its chief, Pradeep Gupta, said the decision was driven by a lack of adequate voter responses.

"No one is ready to talk to anyone in the context of elections. So, as long as our sample is not representative, on the basis of a 20-30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number. For that, we will try once again Thursday. Maybe now that the elections have been held, people will be more relaxed," he added.

According to Matrize, there is a neck-and-neck contest between the TMC and the BJP, with the Mamata Banerjee-led party expected to secure between 125 and 140 seats, while the BJP could surpass it with 146 to 161 seats. As per P-Marq, the TMC’s tally could be lower at 118–138 seats, compared to the BJP’s 150–175. A party needs 148 seats to form a government in the state. Poll Diary and JVC have also predicted more seats for the BJP in Bengal, while Peoples Pulse and Janmat Polls give the TMC an edge.

Also Read | Axis My India exit poll: What projections for Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam election results show

What Today's Chanakya predicted for five assemblies?

The Today's Chanakya poll on Thursday predicted that the BJP would win big in West Bengal and Assam, while the DMK would return to power in Tamil Nadu. It also predicted a tight race in Kerala, forecasting 69 seats for the Congress-led UDF and 64 seats for the ruling LDF with a margin of error of nine seats. In West Bengal, Today's Chanakya forecast 192 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC in West Bengal with a margin of error of 11 seats. West Bengal has a total of 294 seats with the majority mark being 148.

Big surprise in Tamil Nadu?

While other pollsters such as Peoples Pulse, Matrize and P-Marq predicted a DMK government in Tamil Nadu, Axis My India and JVC have offered a bold forecast. JVC projected that the NDA alliance, which includes the AIADMK and the BJP, will emerge as the single largest formation in the state. However, Axis My India made the most striking prediction, saying that actor Vijay’s party, TVK, on its debut, could win between 98 and 120 seats in Tamil Nadu, becoming the single-largest party.

A UDF comeback in Kerala on cards

Exit polls for Kerala indicated a clear edge for the UDF across most agencies, though the margins vary. Surveys by Peoples Pulse, Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary and Axis My India broadly projected the UDF in the range of around 70 to 90 seats, indicating a strong possibility of it returning to power.

The ruling LDF is expected to trail, with estimates largely placing it between the mid-50s and mid-60s, though a few projections suggest it could dip slightly lower. Meanwhile, the NDA continued to remain a marginal player in the state, with most polls giving it anywhere between zero and seven seats. Overall, the trends point towards a likely UDF victory, but with enough variation to keep some uncertainty until the final results are declared.

NDA to claim govt in Assam

Exit poll projections for Assam’s 126-seat assembly indicate a strong advantage for the NDA, with most agencies placing it comfortably ahead, often near or above the majority mark. Estimates for the NDA range broadly from the high 60s to around 100 seats, with several polls clustering in the 85–100 range. The Congress-led alliance is projected to trail significantly, generally falling between the low 20s and around 40 seats. AIUDF is expected to secure only a marginal presence, typically under 5 seats. Others remain negligible across polls. Overall, the trend suggests a clear NDA edge with limited competition from opposition parties.

Puducherry exit polls give NDA clear edge

Exit polls for Puducherry’s 30-seat assembly indicate a clear advantage for the NDA, with most agencies projecting it in the lead, often nearing or crossing the halfway mark. The DMK-Congress alliance is expected to trail with a modest seat share, while TVK remains a minor player with limited impact. Others could secure a small but potentially influential number of seats. Overall, the trend points to an NDA edge, though the presence of smaller parties may play a role in tight scenarios.