Cyclone ‘Biparjoy’ intensifies. How it will impact weather, monsoon in India

Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said the monsoon onset over Kerala may happen on June 8 or June 9.

Cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea rapidly intensify into a severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday morning, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. It is expected to further intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region within the next 12 hours.

Cyclone Biparjoy: A man with an umbrella stands over fishing boats stationed along a beach.(AFP / Representative)

Scientists say cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have been intensifying rapidly and retaining their intensity for a longer duration due to climate change.

The cyclonic storm over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary for almost three hours and was about 900 km west-southwest of Goa, 1000 km southwest of Mumbai, 1,070 km south-southwest of Porbandar and 1370 km south of Karachi at 5.30am IST.

Impact on weather in India

With the onset of the monsoon in Kerala already delayed, the Met department on Monday said the cyclonic storm is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast. The weather department is yet to give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala while private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said it may happen on June 8 or June 9 that too with a "meek and mild entry".

"These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.

The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. The IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon might arrive in the southern state by June 4. While the onset of monsoon in Kerala got further delayed due to the formation of a low-pressure system in the Arabian Sea, it does not mean, according to scientists, that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late. It also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.

Wind warning over the next five days

Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph prevailing over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of west-central and southeast Arabian Sea is likely to become 105-115 kmph gusting to 125 kmph from the evening of June 7 over the same area.

On June 8, squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely along and off Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts. The wind speed is likely to remain same for the next four days along these coastal areas.