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First exit polls out: Bengal remains a tight race, DMK firm in Tamil Nadu
If Matrize's numbers hold, the country is headed for a dramatic May 4. The agency's projections point to a historic change of guard in West Bengal.
The first exit poll projections of the 2026 assembly election season are out, and two prominent agencies — Matrize and People's Pulse — have now released projections across all five poll-bound states and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
While the two agencies broadly agree on Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, they are dramatically at odds on West Bengal — the single biggest battleground of this election season.
If Matrize's numbers — the first exit poll projections of the 2026 assembly elections — hold on result day, the country is headed for a dramatic May 4. The agency's projections point to a historic change of guard in West Bengal and Kerala, a comfortable DMK retention in Tamil Nadu, and a third successive term for the BJP in Assam. Puducherry projections are yet to be released.
The biggest story of the evening, thus, clearly is West Bengal.
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Bengal exit polls
The biggest story of the evening is West Bengal, and it comes with a major caveat: the two agencies cannot be more different.
Matrize projects the BJP winning 146–161 seats in the 294-member assembly — above the majority mark of 148 — with a vote share of 42.5 per cent, against TMC's 125–140 seats at 40.8 per cent.
People's Pulse, however, tells a completely opposite story, projecting TMC at a dominant 177–187 seats, with BJP a distant second at 95–110. Left is projected at 0–1, Congress at 1–3, and BGPM at 1–2 as per Peoples Pulse.
If Matrize is right, it would mark the end of Mamata Banerjee's 15-year grip on Bengal and the most significant state-level upset in recent Indian political history. If People's Pulse is right, Mamata returns with a landslide.
The campaign in Bengal was shaped by battles over electoral rolls and citizenship, border security, women's safety, employment, and anti-incumbency after a decade and a half of Trinamool rule.
The state polled in two phases on April 23 and 29, recording a massive voter turnout of over 90% that crossed the 2021 record of 80.4%.
The wide divergence between the two agencies makes Bengal the most unpredictable outcome of May 4.
Tamil Nadu may stay with DMK
In Tamil Nadu, both agencies agree on a DMK return — but diverge on the margins.
Matrize projects the DMK-led alliance winning 122–132 of 234 seats at 40.3 per cent, while the AIADMK-led front takes 87–100 seats at 37.1 per cent, and TVK opens with 10–12 seats.
People's Pulse paints a more decisive picture for the DMK, projecting it at 125–145 seats — with a significantly weaker AIADMK at just 65–80.
Crucially, People's Pulse gives TVK a higher tally of 18–24 seats, suggesting Vijay's party could emerge as a more consequential third force than Matrize anticipates.
The high-stakes battle played out between CM MK Stalin's DMK and Edappadi K Palaniswami's AIADMK-BJP alliance. The state recorded its highest-ever assembly election turnout of 84.69 per cent.
Cong set to win Kerala
Kerala springs a change as per Matrize, which projects the Congress-led UDF winning 70–75 seats at 41.7 per cent — against the ruling LDF's 60–65 seats at 39.5 per cent — ending Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term. The BJP-led NDA is projected at just 3–5 seats. Kerala recorded a voter turnout of 78.23 per cent, the highest since 1987.
Assam and Puducherry
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA appears firmly in control across both agencies, though the breakdowns differ.
Matrize projects the NDA alliance at 85–95 of 126 seats.
People's Pulse breaks it down further: BJP alone at 68–72, Congress at 22–26, AGP at 7–10 seats and BPF at 8–9, putting the broader NDA combine comfortably past the majority mark of 64. The AIUDF is projected at 3–5, Raijor Dal at 1–2, and smaller parties at 0–1 each.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking another term, with Congress fielding Gaurav Gogoi as its lead face. Assam recorded a record turnout of approximately 85 per cent on April 9.
In Puducherry, People's Pulse projects AINRC at 10–12 seats, BJP at 5–6, and LJK at 1–2, putting the NDA combine at likely 16–20 seats, right around the majority mark of 16.
On the opposition side, DMK is projected at 6–8 seats and Congress at 1–3, with TVK at 0–1 and others at 1–2, suggesting a tight contest with the ruling NDA under CM N Rangaswamy holding a slender edge. Puducherry recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 90.47 per cent on April 9.
All results will be officially declared on May 4.
