H-1B visa, trade: What Donald Trump's presidency would mean for India
From H-1B visa to defence cooperation to trade policies, several elements might see a shift now that Trump will be returning to power in the US.
As Donald Trump is set to return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, several eyes are now locked on the impact it will have on the India-US relationship. Not to forget that Trump has made his stance very clear when it comes to Washington, "Make America Great Again!" and "America First".
However, Trump has also time and again expressed great admiration for his "good friend" Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Modi congratulates Trump
Amid questions over the future of New Delhi and Washington's ties, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to X to congratulate his "friend" Trump for winning the US presidential elections.
PM Modi said he looked forward to "renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership," adding that, "Together, let's work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity."
Notably, Trump reached out to Hindu voters on Diwali last week and expressed his commitment to strengthening America's relationship with India. In a long post on microblogging site X, Trump expressed his admiration for India and PM Modi.
"We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi," Trump said.
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Notably, Trump and PM Modi's camaraderie has been on full display many times in the past during grand events like "Howdy, Modi!" in Texas in 2019 and "Namaste Trump" event in Ahmedabad in 2020.
Jaishankar on US elections
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, currently touring Australia, reacted to the US presidential elections and the close contest between Trump and Harris, saying that India and US' bilateral relations have seen steady progress over the last five presidencies.
"So, when we look at the American election, we are very confident that whatever the verdict, our relationship with the US will only grow," he said while addressing a press conference.
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Jaishankar also took note of the revival of QUAD under the Trump presidency in 2017. It's interesting, amid COVID when physical meetings had stopped, one of the rare physical meetings of Foreign Ministers was actually of the QUAD in Tokyo in 2020. So I think that should tell us something," he said.
Trade and economic ties
Considering Trump's stance on trade policies, it is highly likely that an administration led by him would prioritise US-centric policies, potentially pressuring India to reduce tariffs and tweak export policies.
Last month, Trump had claimed that New Delhi imposes some of the highest tariff on foreign products and vowed to introduce a reciprocal tax if he wins the race to the White House.
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"Perhaps the most important element of my plan to make America extraordinarily wealthy again is reciprocity," Trump said while speaking to the members of the Detroit Economic Club. He accused India of being the "biggest charger" of tariffs, citing examples of import taxes on Harley Davidson bikes -- something that he raised during his first term in the Oval Office as well.
However, he also toned back down to shower praises on PM Modi. "India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He's a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He's brought it to together. He's done a great job," he said.
"I mean, I think they probably charge more than, in many ways, China. But they do it with a smile. They do it... Sort of a nicer charge. They said thank you so much for purchasing from India,” the former US President promptly added.
Bloomberg Economics had predicted that Donald Trump's proposed tariff hikes could barely impact India's economy, estimating a 0.1% decrease in GDP by 2028 if Trump follows through with a 60% tariff on Chinese products and 20% on others.
The report suggested that this decline would be the resultant of a general downswing in global trade and India's relative lack of competitiveness.
However, economists have suggested that New Delhi could hit back at the effects of Trump's trade barriers by increasing manufacturing subsidies and reducing average import tariffs.
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H-1B visa
A key concern for the Indian workforce in the US -- or those looking to move to the US -- is the H1-B visa. As voting for the presidential elections in the US is underway, where numbers are leaning towards Trump's return to the White House, people are wondering what would happen to the annual allotment of 85,000 H1-B vias if he comes to power.
The H1-B is a non-immigrant visa which allows US-based companies to hire and employ foreign workers for speciality jobs like science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM), and IT. This visa allows IT companies to send their employees to the US.
In the past, Trump has expressed his reservations towards the H-1B visa, describing them as "very bad" and "unfair" to the US workers. With this and the possibilities of his return to the Oval Office, there are chances that he may overhaul the H-1B visas.
During his presidency in 2020, the US labour department proposed a new rule to raise the minimum wage of a H-1B visa holder to that of the standard US worker. However, this was blocked later. Possibilities of restrictive order on legal immigration pathways were also reported by the US media.
Defence cooperation and security
It is likely that Donald's Trump stances on China and counter-terrorism might align with India's concerns, presenting a possible pathway for deepened defence cooperation between Washington and New Delhi.
Under Trump's presidency, QUAD -- an alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia to counter China's influence on the Indo-Pacific region -- was also elevated.
Notably, military exercises and cooperation between India and the US would continue to take place, given the two nations' stance on countering Chinese influence.
During his recent Diwali post and pitch to Hindu voters, Trump has condemned the "attacks on minorities" in Bangladesh, where Hindu and Christian minorities reportedly faced mob attacks and violence amid unrest in the country.
"It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America," Trump said. He also reiterated his intentions, "I cut taxes, cut regulations, unleashed American energy, and built the greatest economy in history. We will do it again, bigger and better than ever before—and we will Make America Great Again.”