High R-value worrying but premature to declare third Covid wave, scientists say

India reported 42,625 new Covid-19 cases and 562 related deaths over the last 24 hours, the health ministry data showed Wednesday morning.

The rise in the effective reproduction number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak is worrying but it is too early to declare the beginning of a new wave, scientists have said. On Tuesday, top government health officials said that the R number, which denotes how many people are contracting the virus from one infected person, is above 1 in eight states and continues to rise.

13 states and union territories recorded a surge in infections last week, with Kerala reporting the highest number of cases among states. (PTI)

The virus outbreak in these regions has also pushed the country’s overall effective R number to 1.2, which, many say, is an early warning of a growing outbreak. However, several scientists have suggested that the second wave may not be over yet. Gautam Menon, professor at Departments of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University, told news agency PTI that new daily cases in the northeast have not gone down to the levels as reported in Delhi and other northern states.

"In that sense, we are likely seeing a continuation of the second wave rather than the initiation of a new Covid wave distinct from the previous one," he said, adding that the surge in cases is, however, certainly worrying.

India reported 42,625 new Covid-19 cases and 562 related deaths over the last 24 hours, the health ministry data showed Wednesday morning. While India’s Covid-19 situation currently seems under control, 13 states and union territories recorded a surge in infections last week, with Kerala reporting the highest number of cases among states.

Sitabhra Sinha, from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, sounded alarm that the rise in R number seems to be resulting from several states rather than any particular region. “The cities of Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, and Delhi also are showing R above 1. This suggests a rise in the active cases that is coordinated across widely scattered regions which would be hard to contain,” he told PTI.

Sanjeev Galande, dean of the School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, echoed the view of other experts that it is too early to declare the surge as the beginning of the next wave. Galande noted that the national weekly average hasn’t changed significantly as small increases are seen in a few states.

“It is too early to predict whether this is indeed the beginning of the next wave,” he added.