How caste dynamics influenced the outcome
From data analysed by HT, there were two takeaways. One, the BJP had slipped in SC seats. Two, the BJP did worse among SC seats
New Delhi: A dusty stretch of 340km separates the towns of Bharatpur in Rajasthan and Nagina in Uttar Pradesh. Their cultures, tongues and populations are disparate, as are their electoral dynamics – the bipolar polity swinging between the BJP and the Congress in Rajasthan a world away from the complex vortex of regional parties jostling for space with national outfits in Uttar Pradesh.
Yet on Tuesday evening, these two constituencies were united in the manifestation of one unique phenomenon that ended up as one of the defining features of these elections – the consolidation of the Dalit communities over fears that the Bharatiya Janata Party will alter the Constitution if it wins an untrammelled majority, and their leaning away from the incumbent.
In Bharatpur, this fear boosted 26-year-old Sanjna Jatav to a victory over the BJP’s incumbent Ramswarup Koli by 50,000 votes. And in an even more extraordinary result, it lifted firebrand leader Chandrashekhar Azad to an unprecedented victory against candidates from both the BJP and the INDIA bloc by a handsome margin of 150,000 in Nagina.
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Their unlikely triumphs exemplify a national trend of the BJP doing much worse in the 84 Lok Sabha seats reserved for Scheduled Castes. To be sure, not all of these seats have Dalits as the majority community but the performance in these seats is a reliable barometer of the political leanings of India’s most marginalised caste.
From data analysed by HT, there were two takeaways. One, the BJP had slipped in SC seats. Of the 84, it won 46 in 2019 and only 29 in 2024. Its median vote share dropped from 50.76% to 45% and strike rate from 73% to 42%.
Two, the BJP did worse among SC seats than general or seats reserved for tribals. In general seats, its strike rate was at 56% and tribal seats 59%, compared to 42% for SC seats – a fact that experts attributed to fears around the Constitution hurting the BJP.
The sub-par performance was a blow to the BJP which made steady inroads among the Dalit communities, especially the smaller groups, over the last decade by focussing on intercommunity divide, welfarism and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.
The snowballing anxiety among Dalit groups over the impact of the BJP’s hegemony first emanated in the cramped bylanes of Dalit-dominated neighbourhoods in small towns such as Nagina, Robertsganj or Machhlishahr and was soon picked up by the Opposition. Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, himself hailing from a Dalit community, stressed on the possibility in rally after rally and his party colleague Rahul Gandhi started carrying a pocket Constitution to all his events to underline his adherence to India’s founding book.
The BJP, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah, first tried to counter this groundswell by repeatedly saying they had no intention of changing the Constitution. After the first phase of elections, they shifted to the offensive by using sharp language laced with faith-based dogma – alleging that it’s not the BJP that was looking to syphon away quotas from Dalits, Adivasis and backwards, it was the Congress. And worse still, it had done so in states such as Karnataka and given it to Muslims.
The INDIA bloc chose to not engage. Instead, it pivoted away from its promises of a nationwide caste census and doing away with the 50% cap on reservations towards the language of protecting the Constitution, a perceptible nod to anxieties emanating from the ground and an implicit admission that while important, explaining the complicated link between a caste census and constitutional rights (or jobs) was tougher than using the far simpler (and more emotive) image of the Constitution.
The Constitution came to encapsulate the aspirations and concerns of Dalit people to whom reservations are the only ladder to a life of dignity and constitutional protections against violence and untouchability the only bulwark against social oppression. In meetings, Dalit candidates such as Azad and Jatav spoke not only about Dr BR Ambedkar and dignity, but also the need for laws to protect Dalits against violence and the importance of the fast-disappearing government jobs.
The BJP sought to counter this argument by trying to communalise reservations, and paint minorities as the bogey. But as Jatav breaking into an impromptu jig on Tuesday evening showed, that gambit had largely failed.
“The Constitution was a microcosm of a wider phenomenon that encapsulated concerns about an overreaching government to jobs, social protections and equal enforcement of the law,” said political scientist Neelanjan Sircar.