How the incumbency factor played out in assembly polls | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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How the incumbency factor played out in assembly polls

ByGilles Verniers, , New Delhi
Mar 14, 2022 12:36 PM IST

Wave elections have the effect of upsetting past trends and affect the quantum of political experience cumulated by elected representatives in their respective state assemblies.

Every election produces a churning of the political class. Wave elections have the effect of upsetting past trends and affect the quantum of political experience cumulated by elected representatives in their respective state assemblies. Here, we use TCPD’s Political Career Tracker and Individual Incumbency Dataset to see how different kinds of candidates – newcomers versus career politicians – have fared within their parties across the five states that went to polls and assess to what degree the political classes of these states have changed.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing BJP workers before filing nomination papers from Varanasi, said there was an unprecedented pro-incumbency wave in the country.(HT file) PREMIUM
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing BJP workers before filing nomination papers from Varanasi, said there was an unprecedented pro-incumbency wave in the country.(HT file)

Most sitting MLAs contested again

The first observation is that, contrary to trends observed in recent state elections, most parties across these five states fielded a large share of their sitting MLAs. In Manipur, all sitting MLAs but two contested. In Uttarakhand, 49 of the assembly’s 70 MLAs re-ran. In Punjab the ratio was also high, with 85 sitting MLAs contesting, out of 117. These are unusually high numbers considering that parties usually seek to beat individual anti-incumbency by replacing most of their sitting MLAs.

In Uttar Pradesh, however, parties did discard almost half of their MLAs (200 out of 403), including BJP, which fielded only 149 of its 303 MLAs (303 at the time of candidate’s nomination, accounting for by-polls and defections).

Re-running incumbents performed differently across states. In Goa and Manipur, roughly half of the re-running MLAs lost their seat (47% and 55%), an indication of these states’ characteristic electoral volatility. In Uttarakhand, a large share of re-running MLAs retained their seat (65%). This is partly explained by the fact that Uttarakhand voters re-elected their government for the first time since the creation of the state in 2000.

In Uttar Pradesh, seven out of ten re-running MLAs won their race, an unusually high proportion in a state where traditionally, only a quarter of elected MLAs get to serve a consecutive term. Here again, like in Uttarakhand, the rare event of a sitting government’s mandatebeing renewed accounts for a part for this unusual number.

Given the sheer scale of AAP’s performance and the wave of discontent against the state’s political establishment, the strike rate of re-running incumbent MLAs was particularly low (26%). Some of the most experienced MLAs from both Congress and SAD lost their seats, including ten-time MLA Parkash Singh Badal and former chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal.

More experienced assemblies

As a result, these elections saw fewer political newcomers get elected. The share of first-time MLAs in Manipur, Uttarakhand and Goa oscillates between 17% and 20%, well below their past average (38%, 43% and 39% respectively, over the past 20 years).

In Uttar Pradesh, the share of first-time MLAs is at a record low (20%), well below the 60% average of the past 20 years. This comes again from the fact that the incumbent government won a consecutive term in this state for the first time in seven decades and decided to run with many experienced candidates (197 against 179 first-time candidates, including 28 turncoats).

State size may also account for these variations. There is something of a small-state effect in which parties tend to rely more on candidates. Smaller constituencies mean that candidates have better opportunities to build direct links with voters, contrary to large, populated states where party appeal tends to matter more to voters, who often don’t even know who the candidates in their constituency are. 54% of Goa’s MLAs are serving for the third time or more –a remarkable longevity in a country where most MLAs donot last for more than one term.

Punjab again is an outlier in this election cycle. AAP’s victory has led to the infusion of new blood into the state’s assembly. 82 of AAP’s 117 candidates were first-time contestants. The party retained only 9 of its 20 sitting MLAs. It also discarded most of its previous contestants, seeking to present a fresh face to voters in this election.

These details about candidates may not seem to matter very much, given the sweeping mandates won by leader-centric parties. But once the polls are over, parties’ electoral machines tend to make way for elected representatives who act as a conduit between their constituents and the state. Experience certainly helps legislators to become more effective advocates among their constituents. The re-election of many MLAs also means that assemblies might benefit from the higher degree of cumulative experience of its members. Most fly-by-night MLAs are ignorant of even basic legislative work.

Gilles Verniers is Assistant Professor of Political Science and Co-Director, Trivedi Centre for Political Data. Ananay Agarwal is Junior Research Fellow, Trivedi Centre for Political Data. Views are personal.

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