E-Paper
In a fractured world, consistent approach will pay rich dividends
Multiple partnerships – not just with the big powers but also with the Global South -- beckon and can be built up for mutual benefits.
Someone has rightly called it the summer of our discontent. A long season in which India-US relations went from a state of stable satisfaction to stunned shock. Not since the immediate aftermath of the 1998 nuclear tests has such coldness and disregard characterised the bilateral relationship. What’s more, then we were expecting it to happen and were bolstered by the conviction behind our actions, this time it was a daylight ambush.
Donald Trump, despite an early meeting with the Prime Minister which indicated continuity in the relationship and a quick start to trade negotiations, inexplicably cut loose. Reciprocal tariffs of 25% on most goods were announced and a further 25% added in August ostensibly on account of continued purchases of Russian oil by India, never mind the fact that China imported more Russian oil or that the Biden administration had itself encouraged India in this direction. That these were the highest tariffs imposed on a major trading partner by the US indicated a degree of spite. Added to that was the uneducated invective unleashed on India by Trump’s hounds of the trade war, so to speak, that made Clinton’s 1998 statement of coming down on India like “a ton of bricks” seem like an endearment.
In parallel, Trump made repeated claims, despite India’s remonstrations to the contrary, that he stopped the war between India and Pakistan in May. Adding salt to the cut, Pakistan was taken into a friendly embrace after years in the cold, our allergy to the hyphenation and close Pakistan-China relations notwithstanding. Fees for new H1B visas, of which Indian skilled professionals are the largest beneficiaries, were hiked to a hundred thousand dollars, and international student visas curtailed. To crown it all came the warming towards China with talk of a G-2. Even as a rhetorical flourish, this is sufficient to dampen the strategic glue that has bound India and the US over the last two decades against an increasingly muscular China. In this context, it is little comfort that Trump’s erratic behaviour has also impacted US relationships with other friends and allies, though arguably not to the same degree.
Enough ink and angst have already been spilt on why this all came to pass. The more important question is: What now?
Despite the shock, and considerable chagrin, India has responded to Trump’s broadside with dignified restraint. We held our line that matters with Pakistan are to be dealt with bilaterally. We have soldiered on with the trade negotiations and have moved ahead with the decadal renewal of the defence framework agreement. We have signed deals for another 90 million dollars’ worth of American weaponry in the form of Javelin systems and Excalibur projectiles. Purchases of Russian oil have fallen, largely because Indian crude importers would rather avoid secondary sanctions arising from hardening western sanctions on Russia’s oil majors. A deal has also been signed to import 2.2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from America – amounting to 10% of our imports. We also remain engaged in Quad processes that will hopefully lead up to a summit hosted by us.
This calibrated approach, aimed to keep as many pieces as possible of the crucial bilateral relationship in play, is commendable but it should not engender hopes of a silver bullet that will reverse relations in full measure. It is always possible that some things may improve – that too follows from Trump’s unpredictability – but a long-term strategic partnership cannot be built on a moment’s mood; commitment cannot be sustained on bated breath. We have to make peace with the reality that a huge question mark now looms over what we had accepted as a truism, that the US will -- strategically, economically and technologically – help propel India’s regional and global rise. Trust, assiduously and incrementally built into the relationship over two and a half decades, has been severely damaged and given the political churn in the US itself, it is unclear as to what policies will find favour with Trump’s successors.
As we move into winter, the message should be that we are ultimately on our own, but we do not have to go it on our own. Multiple partnerships – not just with the big powers but also with the Global South -- beckon and can be built up for mutual benefits, based on a realistic assessment of strengths, weaknesses, needs and possibilities. Genuine strategic autonomy will have to be based on long-term fundamental principles and well-projected values of our foreign policy. Only then will it rise above being labelled as tactical opportunism or transactional hedging. In a fractured, cynical and conflicted world, such strategic autonomy will always come at a price and there will be times when all partners are not equally pleased with our positions. But consistency of approach as well as enhancement of our own capabilities, which in turn will make us an increasingly important partner, will keep that price within limits. The building up of our own strengths and capabilities involves going down a long arduous road, but it is an unavoidable road and one we have travelled before. The inconsistencies of the past summer are an opportunity for a reset. Following the recent meeting of India-Brazil-South Africa leaders, the forthcoming visits of President Vladimir Putin and, in January, of the European leadership should provide appropriate opportunities.
Navtej Sarna is a former ambassador to the United States and high commissioner to the UK. The views expressed are personal.
