In worst-case scenario, India could report over 6 crore Covid-19 cases by March 2021: IISc study

In its “worse scenario” projection, the model predicted no Covid-19 peak for India until the end of March 2021. Whereas going by the “better scenario”, India’s Covid-19 peak could come by the “second week of September”.

According to the Indian Institute of Science’s (IISc) projection of Covid-19 infections in India, in a better case scenario for the country, India’s total coronavirus cases could be as low as 37.4 lakh at the end of March 2021 and could get as high as 6.18 crore at the end of March 2021 in the worst-case scenario.

File photo: Medical workers in PPE overalls during a screening exercise during a nationwide lockdown due to coronavirus pandemic.(Yogendra Kumar/HT PHOTO)

The IISc model “is a paradigm shift in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases” and is based on the country’s Covid-19 data and trends observed between Mar 23 and June 18 this year “to tune the parameters of the data-driven model”. However, the projections are likely to differ after taking into account the current Covid-19 situation in the country.

In its “worse scenario” projection, the model predicted no Covid-19 peak for India until the end of March 2021. Whereas going by the “better scenario”, India’s Covid-19 peak could come by the “second week of September” or by October.

The model laid great emphasis on the initiation of “one or two-day lockdown per week” to cut the rate of new infections.

“One or two day lockdown per week (e.g., Sunday, Sunday & Wednesday etc) with complete compliance along with adequate social distancing during other days is effective to reduce the spread,” the study read.

It also noted the steady improvement in India’s Covid-19 recovery rate and emphasised the importance of appropriate medical care and timely quarantine.

“Among all measures, contact tracing, quarantine and social distancing are key to contain the spread in the absence of vaccine,” it stated.

India’s Covid-19 tally now near the 10 lakh mark with over 24,000 deaths and the number of recovered patients touching 6 lakh. Globally, the virus has infected 13 million people while over 5 lakh people have succumbed to death and over 8 million patients have recovered worldwide.