Monsoon likely to pick up pace starting June 18, says weather department

Some experts also believed that at least some of the rain was being caused not by the monsoon but by interaction with cyclone Biparjoy

The southwest monsoon has not progressed much since June 11 and is likely to advance only from June 18, the Indian weather office admitted on Wednesday.

The India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the monsoon on June 8, although it wasn’t clear at the time whether all criteria for doing so had been met (AP)

The India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the monsoon on June 8, although it wasn’t clear at the time whether all criteria for doing so had been met, with experts warning that the onset would be weak, and the progress of the monsoon, slow.

Some experts also believed that at least some of the rain was being caused not by the monsoon but by interaction with cyclone Biparjoy. IMD maintained that Biparjoy helped the monsoon initially.

“It has helped the monsoon. Because of the cyclone the wind flow from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere was strengthened. The cyclone moved very slowly and helped advance the monsoon,” said M Mohapatra, IMD director general.

“Now the cyclone is detached from monsoon circulation. Till June 18, due to the cyclone and its remnant there may be some adverse impact on the monsoon. After 18th, monsoon circulation will strengthen. Monsoon is likely to resume around June 18 and then cover more parts of Peninsular and east India by June 21,” Mohapatra said on Wednesday.

The monsoon hasn’t progressed much since June 11. The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Ratnagiri, Koppal, Puttaparthi, Shriharikota, Malda and Forbesganj.

“Hopefully the monsoon will revive by the last week of June. Central and north western India may not get adequate rains till then. Farmers should be informed about this delay and should be advised what strategy they should follow,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. The monsoon usually covers all of central India by June 15.

“We are not seeing any monsoon surge. In three to four days, it may resume with rains over peninsular India. By June 20-21, we are expecting the monsoon to reach east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. For the monsoon to cover central India and reach northwest India, we have to wait longer,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.

To date, there is a 53% rain deficiency (since June 1) with 54% deficiency over the southern peninsula; 73% deficiency over central India; 20% deficiency over northwest India; and 48% rain deficiency over east and northeast India according to IMD.

“15 days precipitation forecast. Looks very weak. We might need to write off June. We need to prepare heartland farmers for this,” tweeted Jatin Singh, head of Skymet Weather.

“Sowing will get delayed due to delayed onset of monsoon. IMD is predicting a normal monsoon which may be normal for the season as a whole but its critical to know if there will be gaps during the season and well distributed. We expect dry spells in July and August, that’s when most crop losses happen. Rainfed crops dry up,” added GV Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director at Centre for Sustainable Agriculture on Thursday.

“If you look at the cropping pattern then people are moving towards water intensive crops like paddy, cotton, sugar cane because there is no support for other crops. So, 1) we have to shift to pulses oilseeds not water intensive ones to adapt better 2) critical irrigation during monsoon gaps tailored for life saving irrigation during dry periods 3) if there is residual risk then we need proper insurance mechanism which is not available,” he said.

This year, IMD has predicted a normal monsoon, with expected rainfall of 96% of the long period average (LPA), although this proportion is at the lowest end of the normal range. There has been anxiety over the monsoon’s performance this year on account of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is correlated with poor monsoon performance. Private forecaster Skymet Weather has forecast “below normal” rainfall at 94% of LPA.

The monsoon is critical for India’s economy as almost half of India’s farmed area accounting for about 40% of production is rain-fed. As many as 47% of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood. A bountiful monsoon is directly linked to a healthy rural economy.