E-Paper
Monsoon rain to be 103% of LPA: IMD
A good monsoon is likely to ensure adequate sowing and a bountiful harvest -- cooling inflation, which, at the retail level in April at 7.9%, is at a eight-year high.
Monsoon rainfall during the next four months (June to September) is likely to be “normal” at 103% of Long Period Average with a model error of +/-4%, India Meteorological Department said while presenting its second stage long range forecast for monsoon on Tuesday, with the forecast likely to assuage concerns about a sub-par monsoon exacerbating inflationary tendencies.
In its first stage LRF issued in April, IMD forecast that monsoon rainfall was likely to be 99% of LPA.
If IMD’s forecast is realised, this will be the fourth consecutive year that monsoon rain will be in the “normal” or “above normal” category. Last year monsoon rainfall was 99% of LPA (normal); in 2020, monsoon was 109% of LPA (above normal); in 2019 monsoon was 110% of LPA (above normal). The last time India saw four consecutive years of normal or above normal monsoons was 14 years ago, between 2005 and 2008, according to IMD officials. The period between 1993 and 1999 also saw only normal or above normal monsoon years according to IMD officials.
A good monsoon is likely to ensure adequate sowing and a bountiful harvest -- cooling inflation, which, at the retail level in April at 7.9%, is at a eight-year high.
LPA is the average rainfall calculated for the 1971 to 2020 period which is 87 cm.
Monsoon rainfall is likely to be above normal over central India (over 106% of LPA) and South Peninsula (over 106% of LPA), and its likely to be normal over northeast India (96 to 106% of LPA) and northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA).
For the monsoon core zone which mainly consists of areas where agriculture is rain-fed, monsoon rain is also likely to be above normal at over 106% of LPA, IMD said. The core zone stretches from Odisha to Maharashtra and Gujarat. During the monsoon months, normal or above normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northwest and central India, northern parts of south peninsular India and northern parts of east and northeast India but below normal rainfall is most likely over some areas of east-central India, southern parts of east and northeast India and some parts of extreme southwestern peninsula, IMD officials said.
“We have increased the quantum of rainfall likely to be received during monsoon months because projections are showing that La Nina conditions will continue till the end of monsoon. La Nina conditions will support normal rains which may be countered a little due to development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions over the Indian Ocean. The statistical parameters are also favourable for a good monsoon. For example, the sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic, the mean sea pressure over the Pacific etc are favourable. The number of favourable parameters are higher during this second stage forecast than what was during the first stage forecast issued in April,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
“The ongoing La Niña conditions from the previous year 2021 were slightly weakened in January and subsequently in February 2022, but again started strengthening from March 2022 onwards. Currently, moderate La Niña conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. The latest global models forecast indicates that the La Niña conditions are likely to continue during the upcoming monsoon season. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the MMCFS and other global models together indicates the possibility of the development of negative IOD conditions during the monsoon season,” IMD said in a statement.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods and drought. In India for example, El Nino is associated with drought or weak monsoon while La Nina is associated with strong monsoon and above average rains and colder winters.
IOD is the difference between the temperature of the ocean in two parts -- in the Arabian Sea on the west and the Bay of Bengal in the east. A neutral IOD doesn’t affect the monsoon but a negative one is bad for it.
Skymet Weather officials said they will not revise their monsoon forecast. “Our forecast remains 98% of LPA during monsoon months which we issued in April. La Nina conditions may continue till July which will support good rains but negative IOD could play spoilsport which is why we are continuing to maintain that rainfall will be 98% of LPA,” said Mahesh Palwat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
Rainfall across the country during June is likely to be normal (92 to 108% of LPA), IMD officials said. The LPA of rainfall over the country during June based on data from 1971-2020 is about 16.54 cm.
Normal to above normal rainfall is likely in June over many parts of northwest and central India, northern peninsula and some parts of east and a few pockets of northeast India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of extreme south peninsular India and northeast India and few parts of northwest, central and east India, IMD said.
The monsoon made its onset over Kerala on Sunday, May 29, three days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. Independent experts and meteorologists criticised IMD for declaring monsoon onset prematurely with one important criterion, that of rainfall quantum remaining unfulfilled. It was assumed that the rainfall quota required to declare monsoon onset would be fulfilled on Monday but that also did not happen.“We met our criteria. There is very good convective activity over Kerala,” insisted Mohapatra.
