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Monsoon set to reach Andaman & Nicobar four days in advance: IMD
According to a statement from the IMD, a low pressure area formed over south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Wednesday.
Conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the south-west monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The normal date for the arrival of the monsoon over the islands is May 20.
According to a statement from the IMD, a low pressure area formed over south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Wednesday. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal on May 15, and intensify into a cyclonic storm over south-west and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal by the evening of May 16.
It is then likely to move northwestwards till May 17 and recurve north-northeastwards. These conditions are making it favourable for the monsoons to advance over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The IMD will announce whether the monsoons will also make an early appearance over Kerala on May 15.
The Weather Company of IBM, a private weather forecaster, has predicted that the monsoons will arrive slightly early over Kerala by May 31. “Our models and data show May 31 as the likely [date of] arrival,” said Himanshu Goyal, India business leader for The Weather Company.
“The low pressure area over south Andaman Sea will intensify into a cyclone but we are not yet sure where it will make landfall. It could be over the West Bengal coast or over the northeast,” he added.
IMD director general M Mohapatra said: “The normal arrival date for the monsoons over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands is May 20, with a standard deviation of seven days. This time, it is expected to arrive on May 16. We will announce the date of monsoon arrival over Kerala on May 15, based on the latest data.”
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said the Andaman region is expecting early rains due to the low pressure system that has formed over south Bay of Bengal.
“This low pressure system is expected to develop into a cyclonic storm and pull the south-westerly monsoon winds early into the Andaman seas. An early onset at the Andamans need not mean that the rest of the country will see an early onset. This is because several factors, including low pressure systems in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and the phase of the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations, govern the northward progression of the monsoon,” he said.
There will be gale winds of 65 kmph to 75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph over south-west and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal from the evening of May 16. Squally winds reaching 45 kmph to 55 kmph will prevail over the Andaman Sea, IMD said on Wednesday.
Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal from May 15 to May 16, very rough to high over south-west and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal from the evening of May 16, it added.
Fishermen have been advised not to venture into south and central Bay of Bengal from May 15. Those who are out at sea in these regions have been advised to return to the coast by Thursday, the bulletin said.
The IMD has forecast a normal monsoon for this year. A few global climate models are indicating the possible development of weak La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean during the second half of the monsoon season.
La Niña is characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and good monsoon rains. Mohapatra said a more refined monsoon forecast with zone-wise distribution will be issued by the IMD in May-end or early June.
Under the influence of a western disturbance, thundershowers are likely over the Western Himalayan region and over the plains of northwest India during the next two to three days. “Isolated thunderstorm accompanied with hail, gusty winds and lightning is also likely over these regions during the same period,” the IMD bulletin said. The Delhi-NCR region too is likely to witness thundershowers.
Due to a trough or area of low pressure, thundershowers with lightning and gusty winds of 30 kmph to 40 kmph are very likely over south peninsular India during the next four to five days.
