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Monsoon withdrawal may start from Raj on Sept 15
The monsoon may start withdrawing from India as early as September 15, marking its earliest retreat in a decade, according to the IMD.
The monsoon could start withdrawing from September 15, the Indian weather office said, making its retreat this year the earliest in 10 years. Last year, the monsoon started withdrawing on September 23, and in 2023, on September 25.
Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 15, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday. If the monsoon starts withdrawing from West Rajasthan on September 15, this will be the earliest start of withdrawal since 2015, when the withdrawal began on September 4. To be sure, 2016 also saw withdrawal begin on September 15.
The monsoon normally begins withdrawing around September 17 and completely withdraws from the country by October 15.
IMD takes the monsoon as beginning to withdraw from north-western parts of the country when it does not rain for five consecutive days after September 1; an anticyclone (sinking, clockwise winds) is established in the atmosphere around an altitude of 1.4–1.6 km; and there is a reduction in moisture. Similar conditions are used for most of the country provided the conditions are observed in spatial continuity.
“Monsoon withdrawal commencement is near normal this time. So we cannot really say it’s early in that sense. We can declare commencement of withdrawal when rainfall stops, humidity reduces and there is anticyclonic winds. We are expecting such conditions over West Rajasthan from September 15,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
This year, the monsoon made its onset over Kerala on May 24—eight days ahead of schedule—and made remarkably rapid progress over the next two days, covering large parts of the country.
Since June 1, therehas been 8% excess rain over the country with 34% excess over Northwest India; 11% excess over central India; 7% excess over Peninsular India; and 20% deficiency over east and northeast India. Extended range forecasts of IMD show reduced rainfall over the country from September 18.
To be sure, the monsoon remains active over most regions.
Under the influence of a low pressure area over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha, and coastal Andhra Pradesh on September 13, Telangana till September 14 and over Maharashtra till September 15. Rainfall activity is also likely to increase over Northeast adjoining east India with possibility of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Assam and Meghalaya till September 16; Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura till September 15; Arunachal Pradesh till September 15; Bihar on September 13; and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on September 13 and 14.
Northwest India is likely to see light to moderate rain/thunderstorm at some/isolated places with isolated heavy rainfall likely over Himachal Pradesh on September 13 and 14; Uttarakhand till September 16; Haryana, Chandigarh on September 13; East Uttar Pradesh between September 15 and 17; and Punjab on September 17 and 18. IMD has also forecast very heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand on September 13.
As these forecasts for rain suggest, even if monsoon withdrawal begins over West Rajasthan on September 14, it is not necessary that it will withdraw from the rest of the country soon after.
