New cyclone could bring rain to south
Usually conditions are more favourable for formation of storms over Bay of Bengal in May and in November, but this year the Arabian Sea is unusually active, say meteorologists.Updated: Oct 31, 2019, 04:30 IST
A new cyclone is developing over the Arabian Sea, which will coexist with cyclonic storm Kyarr that has now weakened into the “very severe” category from the earlier “extremely severe” level , according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Once formed, this will be the fourth cyclone in Arabian Sea this year after Vayu, Hikka and Kyarr.
Usually conditions are more favourable for formation of storms over Bay of Bengal in May and in November, but this year the Arabian Sea is unusually active, say meteorologists.
It is probably the first time ever that the Arabian Sea has been this active but data hasn’t been verified yet, IMD officials said.
Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu will receive moderate to very heavy rainfall under the influence of the cyclone. Most of these areas have been receiving rains since October 25 because of Cyclone Kyarr.
A well marked low pressure area had formed over Comorin Area, and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean, which had concentrated into a depression on Wednesday.
IMD on Wednesday evening said the depression was very likely to move north-westwards across Lakshadweep Islands during the next 36 hours, and then emerge into east-central Arabian Sea.
It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression in next 24 hours and into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 36 hours.
“This is the fourth cyclonic storm forming over the Ariabian Sea this year. The first was Vayu [June 10], followed by Hikka [September 23], Kyarr [October 25] and now another which will be named once it forms into a cyclone. It appears to be the first time that we have four cyclones in the Arabian Sea but data needs to be verified,” said Sunitha Devi, cyclone head at IMD.
“I haven’t seen two cyclones in close succession in the Arabian Sea. The Bay of Bengal is normally more active in May and November. There could be many reasons behind this — warming of the ocean, favourable winds, a trough type of system should also develop. This year may be a special case,” said D S Pai, senior scientist at IMD Pune.
Sulochana Gadgil of Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS), Indian Institute of Sciences, Bengaluru, said it appears like the Arabian Sea is very active. “We do not see as many storms forming in the Arabian Sea. But this should be verified with historical records.”
Scientists said higher sea surface temperature can be a factor but they did not attribute it directly to climate change. “The cyclone will not cross the Indian coast. Its moving towards Oman. There is likely to be rainfall in peninsular India under its influence,” said M Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.
The period between 1965 and 2018 witnessed 6 super cyclonic storms [maximum sustained wind speed 120 knots or more) over the north Indian Ocean, including Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Of these, 5 developed over Bay of Bengal, and one over Arabian Sea. Cyclone Kyarr is the 7th super cyclonic storm over north Indian Ocean and 2nd over Arabian Sea during the period 1965-2019.