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No end in sight: West fears more lone wolf attacks as IS hunts for new base

According to news reports, Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi asked his cadre to return to their countries, as the Caliphate in Syria and Iraq was over, and wage jihad rather.

Updated on: Nov 1, 2017, 23:39:00 IST
Hindustan Times, New Delhi | By , New Delhi
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National security officials say that lone wolf terror attacks of the type Manhattan witnessed on Tuesday will be sporadically orchestrated in future by self-radicalised so-called Islamic State to keep the idea of the Caliphate alive, particularly after the fall of Raqqa on October 17.

Investigators work around the wreckage of a Home Depot pickup truck a day after it was used in a terror attack in New York on November 1. (AFP Photo)
Investigators work around the wreckage of a Home Depot pickup truck a day after it was used in a terror attack in New York on November 1. (AFP Photo)

An Uzbek origin American immigrant, Sayfullo Saipov, has been charged with mowing down eight people under a truck with another 11 sustaining injuries.

The next focus of the Islamic warriors could be Wilayat Khorasan (Khurasan Province) to try and re-establish the so-called Caliphate and fulfil Islamic prophecies, the officials added, although the US and Europe will remain the main target of such lone wolf attacks .

According to news reports , in his last address to his followers after the fall of Mosul, Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi asked his cadre to return to their countries, as the Caliphate in Syria and Iraq was over, and wage jihad rather.

Iraqi intelligence reports suggest that more than 60,000 IS fighters were killed in Syria and Levant leaving another 20,000 alive and ready to wage war in the name of Caliphate.

According to Indian counterterrorism officials, even as the lone wolf attacks continue in the West, there will be efforts by these terrorists to seize territory in either Afghanistan or Central Asia in the name of Caliphate. IS fighters returning from Syria and Levant could take refuge in either South-East Asia or Africa by assimilating with groups like Boko Haram or Al-Shabaab in Africa or Abu Sayyaf in Philippines, they added.

Alarmed by the terror attacks in Manhattan and, earlier, in London, New Delhi is keen to account for each and every individual who fought alongside IS in Iraq and Syria and those who left for Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province to be part of the Wilayat Khorasan. Intelligence reports indicate that of the 66 Indians who fought in Syria and Iraq, 43 were from the diaspora.

There are 25 people, including 23 from Kerala, who joined the IS in Afghanistan. The total number of Indians killed fighting for IS is 7 to 8. Only two who fought alongside IS have returned.

According to counterterrorism experts, the only way to prevent terror attacks is by each country accounting for its fighters returning home, keeping a close watch on Islamic radicalisation through the internet, and random profiling of suspects to cut down self-radicalisation. Lone wolf attacks, they say, can only be prevented through neighbourhood intelligence.

  • Shishir Gupta
    ABOUT THE AUTHOR
    Shishir Gupta

    Shishir Gupta is Executive Editor at Hindustan Times and one of India's top journalists covering national security, strategic affairs, foreign policy and geopolitics. Over the past three decades, he has extensively reported on India's military, diplomatic and security landscape, covering every major conflict and national security challenge, from the 1999 Kargil War and the 2020 East Ladakh standoff to Operation Sindoor in 2025. He has also covered major terror attacks, including the IC-814 hijacking, the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the 2025 Pahalgam terror strike, along with numerous Pakistan-backed terrorist incidents in the Kashmir Valley and across India. He has reported on national and state elections for more than three decades. A recognised authority on strategic affairs, Gupta has covered India's nuclear programme since the Pokhran-II (Shakti series) tests in May 1998 and has written extensively on global nuclear issues, Indian diplomacy and the country's expanding global outreach. He has also reported widely on international conflicts and terrorism, with a special focus on the Indian subcontinent. Gupta has interviewed Prime Minister Narendra Modi more than four times, including Modi's first interview with the print media after becoming Prime Minister in May 2014. His other interviews include three with the Dalai Lama, as well as conversations with Benjamin Netanyahu, Amit Shah, Yogi Adityanath, S. Jaishankar, Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal. He is the author of Indian Mujahideen: The Enemy Within (Hachette, 2011) and Himalayan Face-off: Chinese Assertion and Indian Riposte (Hachette, 2014). He was awarded the Chevening-Wolfson Joint Scholarship at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, UK, in 1998 and participated in the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) of the US State Department in 2006. He received the Ben Gurion Prize from Israel in 2011 and the K. Subrahmanyam Prize for Strategic Studies in 2015 from the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). Since 2024, he has hosted Point Blank, Hindustan Times' weekly YouTube show on global geopolitics.Read More

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