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BJP chooses to keep distance from power tussle within AIADMK
“It is the BJP which made Edappadi Palaniswami the chief minister. What is happening now is between him and O Panneerselvam,” said Nainar Nagendran, a former AIADMK leader, who switched over to the BJP and is now the party’s floor leader in the Tamil Nadu assembly.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which once brokered peace during AIADMK’s succession battle following J Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, is now a silent spectator to the ongoing power tussle between former chief minister, Edappadi Palaniswami, and his then deputy, O Panneerselvam.
The BJP utilised an opportunity to make inroads into Tamil Nadu through a weakened AIADMK, political analysts said.
“It is the BJP which made Edappadi Palaniswami the chief minister. What is happening now is between him and O Panneerselvam,” said Nainar Nagendran, a former AIADMK leader, who switched over to the BJP and is now the party’s floor leader in the Tamil Nadu assembly.
The BJP does not wish to interfere in the AIADMK’s slugfest, which has gone on for more than a fortnight, several leaders said.
A majority of the AIADMK won over by Palanisswami (EPS) wants him as their leader by scrapping the dual leadership of Panneerselvam (OPS) and EPS as joint coordinators, an arrangement put into place in 2017 with the help of the BJP after Jayalalithaa’s death and her close confidante V K Sasikala’s imprisonment.
OPS has publicly admitted that it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who asked him to be deputy chief minister with EPS as chief minister. So why has the BJP taken a different stance now?
“At that time the AIADMK was governing, so we didn’t want them to topple and go in for a new election. Now, we are in the opposition and no major election is close by,” a BJP leader said, requesting anonymity.
The BJP has watched how OPS political capital has shrunk over the past five years, while EPS consolidated his position within and outside his party.
The BJP pushed the AIADMK to bring back Sasikala and merge the breakaway faction led by her nephew TTV Dhinakaran, according to a BJP leader aware of the developments.
“A party’s top functionary had personally pitched this to EPS and OPS at a hotel in Chennai. While OPS has had a soft corner to accept Sasikala, EPS didn’t budge and has successfully stonewalled her and thwarted her attempts to reclaim the AIADMK to this day,” he said, giving this as an example of how EPS has consolidated his position within the party.
This is a reason why the BJP is unwilling to upset the EPS, whom a majority of AIADMK cadre want as their next leader, said the leader, declining to be named.
For the BJP, having the AIADMK on its side is significant in view of the presidential and vice-presidential elections in July and August, respectively, and the 2024 general elections. If the AIADMK fails to perform well in the 2024 elections, the leader said, the possibility of the BJP going alone in 2026 cannot be ruled out.
“The BJP is gaining ground in Tamil Nadu and there is nothing wrong in our aim for 2026. We have a good friendship and alliance with the AIADMK and our wish is that everyone must be united so that the opposition forces don’t split,” said BJP leader C P Radhakrishnan. He dismissed reports that EPS spoke to him before the party went public about seeking a unitary leadership.
The AIADMK and the BJP have often had cracks in their alliance. Some in the Dravidian party believe they have lost out on the vote bank of Christians, Muslims and Dalits because of their alliance with the Hindu nationalist BJP. The national party is, however, clear that they need the AIADMK for now to gain ground in Tamil Nadu.
If the hyphenated EPS-OPS duo splits, the AIADMK will see the party divided along the Gounder and Thevar caste lines as well. BJP leaders admit this is likely to affect the voting pattern, which the BJP will have to recalibrate.
The south is where the Thevar community, to which OPS and Sasikala belong, dominate. EPS’ Gounder community is dominant in the western region of Tamil Nadu.
It looks increasingly probable that EPS will be chosen as AIADMK’s leader in their next general council meeting to be held on July 11. A wounded OPS has few options and analysts say he may remain sidelined in the AIADMK, quit to start a new party, join the BJP or join forces with Sasikala.
For now, both factions have approached the Election Commission as well as the Madras high court and the Supreme Court over their internal party dispute.
Recalling the Sasikala factor before elections, a BJP leader said that had all factions merged, the AIADMK would have won 100 seats and not be restricted to 66 seats. The National Democratic Alliance 75 seats in the state assembly.
“EPS assured us that even without Sasikala, we can still do well in the south, and beyond a point we didn’t try to convince him because he was the chief minister and we trusted him to know better. But we came out weak in the south,” the BJP leader said.
“The BJP will not want to side with either OPS or EPS. If EPS is stronger in the party and the western region, OPS has a stronghold in the southern region. BJP needs both their support,” said political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. “Now both OPS and EPS will try to get Modi’s ear, especially if there is a fight over the two leaves symbol.”
On the night of the June 23, the AIADMK’s general council meeting stopped short of electing EPS as the sole leader because the court had passed an order in OPS’ favour. But the party clearly humiliated the latter.
The next day OPS met NDA’s presidential candidate Draupadi Murmu, saying that he was there on behalf of the AIADMK to show her unwavering support. OPS returned to Chennai without getting an audience with the Prime Minister.
“This is the party’s internal dispute in which the BJP has no role to play. It is OPS who is making the internal matter public by going to the police and court. If he accepts what the majority of the party want and accepts the general council’s decision, this matter will be settled for everyone,” said a senior AIADMK leader.
