Subdued rains likely over most of India: IMD

Subdued monsoon activity is expected in most parts of the country for the next seven days, barring the Northeast, where heavy rainfall is expected on Monday, IMD said on Sunday.

Subdued monsoon activity is expected in most parts of the country for the next seven days, barring the Northeast, where heavy rainfall is expected on Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

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“Subdued rainfall activity likely over rest parts of the country during next one week,” the weather body said in its daily bulletin.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya on Monday, it added.

There is a 8% deficiency in monsoon rain since June 1, with 16% deficiency over east and northeast India; 16% deficiency over south peninsula; 6% deficiency over central India and 7% excess over northwest India.

“Monsoon is unlikely to revive immediately. In fact, it will remain concentrated over the eastern Himalayas. For next two days, it will be over Western Himalayas,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and Meteorology, Skymet Weather.

The monsoon trough has remained north of its normal position largely from August 7 onwards, leading to extremely heavy rain and flooding over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The trough moved south for a couple of days but has been along the Himalayan foothills most of the time. The monsoon trough is an elongated low-pressure area which extends from a so-called “heat low” (a low pressure over the seas) over Pakistan to the head of the Bay of Bengal region (parts of Odisha, West Bengal, and Bangladesh). This is one of the semi-permanent features of monsoon circulation, according to IMD.

The weather body said the western end of the monsoon trough continues to run along the foothills of the Himalayas. It is likely to remain to the north of its normal position during the next five days. The eastern end of the monsoon trough passes through Gorakhpur, Darbhanga, Balurghat and thence eastwards to Manipur.

A cyclonic circulation is lying over west Assam in the lower tropospheric levels. A trough is running from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to northeast Bay of Bengal in the middle tropospheric levels, IMD said.

“The models are suggesting that there could be a revival of the monsoon after September 4, though it may not be a strong revival. Till September 4, rains will be below normal and thus, will reduce further. The question is how long the monsoon will be in normal activity. But it looks like it will be confined only to east central India,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences and climate scientist.

Rajeevan added that prolonged weak monsoon conditions are an impact of the ongoing El Nino conditions. “El Nino impacts monsoon through extended breaks, keeping rainfall activity very close to foothills,” he said.

El Nino has a strong influence on the southwest monsoon in India. El Nino years are characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.