Trump-Modi summit will straddle key space between geopolitics, real impact
Trump announces Modi's visit to DC in February, highlighting India's importance amid US political shifts and the need for strategic dialogue on key issues.
Washington President Donald Trump has said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Washington DC in February. In symbolic terms, the timing of the visit is the message. It speaks to India’s importance that the transition from a stable Democratic administration to a disruptive Republican administration has been relatively smooth so far for New Delhi.
In tangible terms, the visit should be judged on five parameters of how it meets the current moment in global geopolitics. In terms of the real political impact, it should be judged on a sixth parameter -- whether it addresses a fundamental deficit in the world view of a Trumpist ecosystem.
The five-fold testOne, does the visit send early signals of positivity about the future of the India-US strategic relationship with convergence both in Indo-Pacific and West Asia? This is likely. Both Delhi and DC remain anxious about China. Both Delhi and DC want to see a Saudi-Israel deal and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). There is also greater alignment on Ukraine, where both want an end to the war as soon as possible.
Two, are both sides able to have difficult conversations privately on trade, immigration, defence and investments and arrive at a clear road map to resolve differences, without Trump possibly blurting out embarrassing details? This is unlikely for now. A trade pact is eventually possible but will require battling domestic political lobbies. Defence acquisitions and defence co-production can be reconciled but will need give and take. The in-principle agreement on taking illegal immigrants back is fine but the scale of the problem is still unclear. There is a tension between Trump’s desire for onshoring and India’s hopes for friendshoring though there is meeting ground too. To top it, Trump doesn’t understand discretion, which will make the Indian system, acutely conscious of optics, uncertain of what’s in store. But just an early signal that divergences can be managed will be a good start.
Three, can the visit prevent public damage from issues that are integral to Trump’s agenda but have the potential of hurting Modi’s political base — the diaspora and urban middle class in case of legal migration, Gujaratis in case of illegal immigration, and key business lobbies in case of trade? This is possible, but only as long as India is able to offer Trump what he considers real political wins.
Four, do both sides trust each on China? This is to be determined. The US has sent mixed signals about its China policy — with Trump’s defence of TikTok, the absence of Day 1 tariffs on China, invitation to Xi Jinping for the inauguration, statements suggesting that US and China can make the world safer, and US seeking China’s help to end the Ukraine war. India has embarked on its own version of normal diplomacy in abnormal times with China. Clear, transparent communication can help while ambiguity and opaqueness can erode trust.
Five, do both sides send reassuring signals to critical tech and business investor constituencies about being trusted partners? In the wake of DeepSeek’s disruption of the entire artificial intelligence race, do they find new ways to collaborate to ensure national security for both, dominance and competitiveness in the case of America and growth of an ecosystem and innovation in the case of India?
Expect mixed results on the fifth test. Both sides are invested in continuing the initiative on critical and emerging technologies (iCET) or elements of it. On AI, there will have to be a reset with a careful examination of the entire gamut of issues — the impact of chip restrictions, how India can add value with its twin assets (data and tech talent), India’s ambitions to grow an ecosystem and become an AI power in its own right, and the US’s goal to sustain its dominance in the face of a China making up the gap in much quicker time than anyone anticipated. On semiconductors, it remains to be seen if US encourages American majors to continue investing in India. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Republic Day message to India mentioned space research in particular; this will continue. There is convergence on need for supply chain diversification beyond China but expect discord on details. On defence, as Trump made it clear on his call with Modi, he expects India to buy more equipment — this means that co-production initiatives involving tech transfer are unlikely to be green-lit in a hurry.
All these five areas merit close scrutiny. But in addition, in the run-up to the visit, a key aim should also be to begin a process of addressing a fundamental deficit that exists in Trump’s world, and in the wider US public sphere, about India. And this is about what India brings to the American table.
Sixth test to address mistrustAsk an American about what Indian students contribute to US, and few are likely to be able to tangibly quantify their financial contribution.
Here is a clue. According to a November 2024 report published by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, there were 1.1 million foreign students in the US in the 2023-2024 academic year. They contributed $43.8 billion to the US economy and helped create 378,000 jobs. Out of this total number, according to OpenDoors which tracks foreign students in the US, there were 331,602 students from India, higher than any country, including China. A rough back of the envelope calculation suggests that as one-third of the total number of foreign students in US, Indian students may well have contributed over $10 billion and helped create over 100,000 jobs in the US in just a single academic year.
Ask an American about what Indian companies contribute to the US, and few are likely to be able to point to the actual tangible Indian investments in the US.
Here is a clue. In a report titled “Indian Roots, American Soil”, published in May 2023, the last time any credible data on the issue was available, a Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) survey found that 163 Indian companies had invested $40 billion and created 425,000 jobs in the US. And it may only have grown since. Indian companies are present in all 50 states. The investment by value is highest in Texas and Georgia (incidentally both are Republican states) while job-creation is also highest in Texas, with 29% of Indian investments in the life sciences, pharmaceutical and health care sector, 21% companies in the information technology and telecommunications sector, and 18% in manufacturing, among other sectors. And the figures don’t reveal the hidden stories. Take the example of an HCL plant in North Carolina. In one facility, 87% employees were local Americans and 13% were on H-1B, a complete inversion of the ratio when the Indian tech company first started its operations in the state.
These are two simple barometers, merely indicative of all the other ways India contributes to the US. Of course, India needs the US too, even more so. But precisely for that reason, the diplomatic task at the moment is persuading a large part of America, which is sceptical of international partnerships and sees the world as exploiting America, about India’s value.
To address this deficit, India needs to refocus its diplomatic communication from catering to the home audience and diaspora to catering to the American public sphere. It has to meet American audiences where they are, including podcasts and YouTube videos and social media, and on themes that are outside the bilateral box but pertain to American economy and competitiveness. And it has to refine its messaging, weaving in the shared coded convergence on China but also showing India’s value to the American Main Street.
Modi’s success in this visit will lie in not just setting the tone for positive bilateral ties. It would help to kick off a process where Indian diplomacy is tasked with persuading the US political leadership and the wider US public sphere that India is both a partner of value and that it values the US. It is time for Delhi to own the relationship.
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