Number theory: Two charts which capture Congress' current crisis

Even without the crisis triggered by the Gandhi’s conviction, the Congress would have still had to take a call on its face for the 2024 campaign – unless it decided that it would pick current President Mallikarjun Kharge.

Rahul Gandhi’s conviction in a criminal defamation case, his subsequent disqualification from the Lok Sabha and a possible jail term and debarment from contesting elections for another six years is one of the biggest crises which has faced the Congress, India’s oldest political party. Here are two charts which show that this is only the latest in a series of problems that has plagued the Congress.

Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and party leader Rahul Gandhi during opposition leaders' meeting at Kharge's residence, in New Delhi, Monday. (PTI)

Post-independence Congress is used to being led by someone from the Gandhi family

Of the 17 general elections which have been held in this country since 1951, the Congress has faced every election except one ( 1996 election ) under the leadership of a person from the Gandhi family. Between 1951 and 1962 it was Jawaharlal Nehru, from 1967 to 1980 it was Indira Gandhi, 1984 to 1991 was Rajeev Gandhi (he was assassinated just before the 1991 election), 1998 to 2014 was Sonia Gandhi (even though Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister in 2009 and 2014 it was Sonia Gandhi who was seen as the political leader) and 2019, Rahul Gandhi.

To be fair to the present set of Gandhis leading the party, it was the Congress party which asked Sonia Gandhi to take over the leadership of the party in 1997 after she had refused to partake in active politics after her husband’s killing. Even in 2022, it was the Gandhis, especially Rahul, who insisted that they were not seen on becoming the president of the party. Even without the crisis triggered by the Gandhi’s conviction, the Congress would have still had to take a call on its face for the 2024 campaign – unless it decided that it would pick current President Mallikarjun Kharge.

Its support-base has a seen a gradual decline under every successive Gandhi

A long-term comparison of vote shares of the Congress shows this clearly. If one were round off vote shares, the Congress never went below the 45% mark in the three elections it fought under Jawaharlal Nehru. The party fell below the 40% vote share threshold for the first time in the 1977 elections, which were held after Indira Gandhi imposed the emergency in 1975. The next big watershed moment came in 1996, when the Congress’s vote share fell below the 30% mark. The Congress faced a double whammy of sorts in these elections. It had nobody from the Gandhi family leading the party and the Narsimha Rao government was seen as having allowed the demolition of Babri Mosque under its watch 1992, which was seen a decisive blow for Hindutva politics in India. While Sonia Gandhi could not really bring up the vote share of the Congress above the 30% mark, she did manage to bring back the party in power in 2004 and 2009 as head of a colaition. However, 2014 would see yet another low for the party when the vote share fell below the 20% cut-off for the first time. It remained there in the 2019 elections, which were held with Rahul Gandhi holding the presidency of the party.

Congress’s biggest challenge in the run-up to 2024 is a predatory solidarity

This might seem slightly counter-intuitive given the widespread condemnation of Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification by opposition parties in the last couple of days. However, it can be argued that the solidarity being displayed towards the Congress by other opposition parties is a bit predatory in nature.

Given the sharp drop in Congress’s vote share and seat share in the last two Lok Sabha elections and its reverses in critical states in recently held polls – Punjab and Gujarat in 2022 are the biggest elections – regional parties which are opposed to the BJP are already pushing hard to make the Congress cede more ground to them. Some argue that the Congress cannot even claim to be the principal challenger to the BJP anymore.

Even if the Congress wants to build a widen alliance to challenge the BJP in 2024, it will enter such negotiations from a position of weakness. This is best seen by comparing the share of parliamentary constituencies contested by the Congress and its strike rate in general elections. While the Congress contested its lowest share of seats in the 2004 general elections, its strike rate was much better than what it was in the 2014 and 2019 elections. Regional parties in critical states – the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, the Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) in Maharashtra etc. – are likely to cite these numbers to push harder in alliance negotiations in the run-up to 2024. Others such as the Trinamool Congress are trying to argue that the Congress does not even matter in drafting an opposition-strategy for 2024.

What can work the Congress at the moment?

Four key states which will go to polls before the 2024 general elections will see direct (or almost-direct) contests between the Congress and the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). If the Congress can pull-off convincing victories in these elections, it could at least have a strong bargaining chip vis-à-vis the anti-BJP regional parties. Even then, it will have to handle the challenge of addressing BJP’s advantage in national elections compared to state elections, which has become one of the party’s defining features under Narendra Modi.