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View: Modi has a peace plan, will Putin and Zelenskyy bite ?
Even though India may pretend that it is just acting as a pacificatior between Russia and Ukraine, Modi government has a peace plan
Speaking at an event titled ‘India, Asia and the World’ in New York on September 24 evening, external affairs minister S Jaishankar gave a glimpse on how Prime Minister Narendra Modi was trying to play the pacificator to get warring sides Russia and Ukraine on the peace table to end the long drawn conflict in Eastern Europe.
He pointed towards hectic high-level diplomacy conducted by India between Russia and Ukraine while keeping major powers like the US in the loop with the objective of ending the Ukraine war.
On September 23, PM Modi met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the third time in four months to keep him abreast of discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin on how to stop the conflict and negotiate peace.
This was after Modi’s national security advisor Ajit Doval met President Putin on September 12 and briefed the Russian President on the outcome of PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine on August 23.
To ensure all the stakeholders are on board, PM Modi briefed US President Joe Biden on August 25 and discussed the Ukraine war yet again when both met on September 21 on the sidelines of the QUAD summit in Wilmington, Delaware.
PM Modi also had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 27. PM Modi and President Putin exchanged perspectives on the Ukraine-Russia conflict as the Indian PM reiterated India’s firm commitment to support an early and peaceful resolution to the conflict.
PM Modi will now meet President Putin on October 22 at Kazan on the sidelines of the BRICS summit and brief him personally about the September 23 New York meeting with Zelenskyy. Remember, neither PM Modi nor President Putin will be taking part in the SCO heads of government conference in Islamabad on October 15-16.
The four points pursued by PM Modi on the Ukraine issue are: war is not the way to settle disputes in this day and age; a solution to the crisis will not come from the battlefield; peace will have to be negotiated and negotiations must include all stakeholders and cannot be one-sided.
India on its part is not trying to impose any plan on both sides to stop the war but only acting as an honest intermediary to carry messages between the two enemy nations with the ultimate objective of bringing both leaders on the peace table.
While some BRICS and European leaders have tried to play peacemaker between Kyivv and Moscow by offering various solutions, none has the credibility and seniority like PM Modi to tackle the burning issue.
PM Modi is a close personal friend of President Putin and the two share huge trust with each other. Since PM Modi took over in May 2014, the two leaders have been in constant touch and have spent umpteen hours together discussing global issues.
PM Modi has also managed to bond with President Zelenskyy since he met the Ukrainian leader on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in Italy in June. Simply put, Modi being the longest-serving leader in the democratic world carries the gravitas and weight to put an end to the bloodshed in Central Europe.
EAM Jaishankar put it succinctly when he said at the New York event that India does not have any peace plan or any suggestions. “We are having these conversations and sharing them with the other side…..my sense is that both sides appreciate it… we think if these conversations are helpful and there is something that we could do ... .we could make this contribution,” he said at the Asia Society event.
Even before this peace diplomacy started, PM Modi’s friend and French President Emmanuel Macron had a firm belief that India could play a role in ending the Ukraine war and help mitigate concerns of the Global South.
It is also important that the pacificator diplomacy undertaken by PM Modi leads the warring parties to the negotiating table as US and Western European powers are threatening to allow Ukraine to use the long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory.
This move, if approved, will only lead to vertical escalation, with President Putin threatening a bigger missile retaliation against the entire NATO. If this happens, then the entire world will get embroiled in a war with global dimensions.
Even though President Zelenskyy and the anti-Russia media in the West passed sarcastic observations when PM Modi hugged President Putin in Moscow, India has been an avid advocate of protecting sovereignty and integrity of nations as reiterated in BRICS Goa declaration. While India has constantly refrained from condemning the Russian war on Ukraine, PM Modi has told President Putin clearly that this was not an era of war.
The Modi government has also denied reports that Indian-made artillery shells were being diverted by its European customers to Ukraine, despite serious objections from Russia. The Indian Foreign Ministry called the report speculative and misleading as the Modi government has assiduously kept out of the war effort on both sides.
While the Western media has been targeting India for buying oil and arms from Russia and hence letting Moscow off the hook in the Ukraine war, the fact is that India has no option but to keep the pipeline going as both the issues are linked to its national security. Global oil prices will rise if India stops buying oil from Russia and the most populous country will be hit by inflation.
Indian national security will be compromised as Moscow is still the biggest defence partner of New Delhi with Indian armed forces having more than 60 per cent Russian-origin hardware.
Indian reliance on Russian military hardware goes back five decades when America and the West decided to arm Pakistan in the name of strategic parity with India.
India the best global bet to end Ukraine war?
Even though India appears to be the best global bet to end the Ukraine war, PM Modi’s mission is not easy, as both sides are not willing to make any territorial compromises. Russia with its vast natural resources at its disposal can face up to any west imposed sanctions and its thriving military-industrial complex can still take the war to the enemy. Ukraine, backed by the west, can carry on the war with Democrats in power in Washington.
But this could totally change if Republican candidate Donald Trump comes to power, as he could directly reach out to Putin to stop the conflict and the territorial status quo will be forced on Kyiv. Under these circumstances, the best option is for both sides to use PM Modi’s neutrality and credibility and sort the matter across the negotiating table in a third country.
The UK and EU including Switzerland and Austria have sanctioned Russia, with the Burgenstock Resort peace summit turning out to be a flop in June with no Moscow representative present.
US and Russia relations under Biden are in deep freeze. Efforts made by countries like Saudi Arabia have failed, China has been accused of actively helping Moscow's war machine against Kyiv, and Brazil has been accused by Zelenskyy of siding with Putin. India, under PM Modi, is now the only viable option.
