Winning streaks and the road to F1 pinnacle

When he entered Formula 1 at the ridiculous age of 17 years, Max Verstappen and his prodigious talent were anointed to join the pantheon of Formula 1 greats

When he entered Formula 1 at the ridiculous age of 17 years, Max Verstappen and his prodigious talent were anointed to join the pantheon of Formula 1 greats. By winning his second straight world title last week at the relatively young age of 25 years, Verstappen has moved the conversation needle to what kind of numbers he could stack up by the time he is done. Could it be that he, and not seven-time winner Lewis Hamilton, is the one that breaks Michael Schumacher’s record of seven titles?

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Six more titles are a lot of mileage for anyone. But Verstappen has three things going for him. One, a winning streak, which has been fundamental to every driver who has won at least four titles. Two, a set of circumstances — a fast and reliable car, a team that knows how to keep winning and medium-term pause on big changes in F1 regulations — to keep that streak going for at least three more years, if not more. Three, time on his side.

Rare repeat champions

In the 74-year history of F1, as many as 34 drivers have won the title. Half of them ended up with only one title – a statistic that underscores what a winning season takes out a driver, and the confluence of driver skill, car technology and financial resources required to reach, and then stay, at the very top. As the ask grows, the lines taper.

This is in spite of F1 being kind to driver longevity, compared to other sports. The oldest champion is Juan Manuel Fangio, who won his fifth title in 1957 aged 46 years. In the modern era (post 1990), when cars took progressively less physical effort to drive, Nigel Mansell won in 1992 at the age of 39 years. Similarly, Michael Schumacher won his seventh and last title in 2004, aged 37. Two-time champion Fernando Alonso will step into a new team next year with a contract that will see him racing till the age of 43 years at least. In spite of the possibility of a lengthy career, only five drivers have won four titles or more.

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Importance of winning on the trot

One factor that binds four of those five mega efforts is a winning streak. When they discovered their winning confluence, they maximised their performance window. Five of Schumacher’s seven titles were on the trot – between 2000 and 2004 with Ferrari. Similarly, Hamilton won six titles in seven years, including four consecutive ones, with Mercedes. Had it not been for a controversial finish in the final race of 2021, that would have been seven titles in eight years (and, of course, Verstappen would have one title fewer). All of Sebastian Vettel’s four titles came in a Red Bull run between 2010 and 2013.

Vettel’s case also serves as a tale of how F1 can flatter to deceive. He was just 26 when he won his fourth title. But in 2014, F1 embarked on significant regulation changes to the car, as it does every few years, and the baton passed from Red Bull to Mercedes – from Vettel to Hamilton.

After 2014, the last significant regulation changes happened this year, though Red Bull and Verstappen were able to maintain their edge. The next significant regulatory changes are scheduled for 2026, which gives them three more years in the current window to stretch this winning streak.

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The advantage of age

By virtue of being the youngest driver in F1, Verstappen also has had time on his side. In terms of accomplishments at the age of 25 years, the Dutchman stands apart from the three drivers who raced in the modern era and won four titles or more. He has done more races, stood on more podiums and bagged more wins than Vettel, Hamilton and Schumacher. In terms of championships, Vettel was close to securing his third title, while Hamilton and Schumacher had one apiece at this point.

Both Hamilton and Schumacher endured a period where their cars had to play catch up. Once they did, they won with metronomic frequency. Unlike them, Red Bull and Verstappen today are the hunted and not the hunters. They have the best package, one that is on a run, with a winner’s poise.

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Repeat and retain

Verstappen currently has a 31% lead in points over the second-placed driver. It’s a substantial margin, and also a marker of the performance differential. When regulations don’t change much, good F1 teams tend to carry forward this advantage, even build on it. An advantage of 30%-plus has held well in the modern era. Of the six times a driver has won with such a margin, thrice they have retained the title.

Two occasions necessitate a qualification. Nigel Mansell won with Williams in 1992, but he left the team. His replacement, Alain Prost, won the title in 1993. And, last year, Hamilton lost the title in controversial circumstances. The one time when a driver was beaten emphatically was Vettel in 2014, when the regulations changed. Vettel never won a title again and ended up with four. For now, Verstappen is in a sweet spot.

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