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AP verdict alarms BJP
Losses in Andhra are a little more than we had taken into account, party leader Arun Jaitley said.
Fears of a hung Parliament gained wider currency on Tuesday as exit polls proved true about Andhra Pradesh, where nine years of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) rule came to an end in state elections.
A subdued Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tried in vain to distance the Andhra Pradesh results from the national election verdict expected on Thursday, even as leaders sounded out the benchmark for bowing out if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fell short of a majority as predicted in some exit polls.
"This kind of result will have some effect on the Lok Sabha outcome," admitted BJP leader Arun Jaitley, one of its key strategists, referring to the 545-seat lower house of parliament for which staggered elections ended Monday.
"We had factored in our parliamentary election calculations some reduction in our votes in Andhra Pradesh, but I feel the losses in Andhra Pradesh are a little more than we had taken into account," Jaitley said.
In an equally forthright reaction, BJP leader S.S. Ahluwalia said the BJP-led coalition ruling India since 1999 would not try to form a government if it lost the people's mandate.
"If we win the people's mandate, we form the government. If we don't, then we will sit in opposition," asserted Ahluwalia, a day after Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee reportedly suggested to his party that he would rather bow out if the NDA won less than 250 seats.
Exit polls, which have a mixed track record in India, proved to be true for the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections held simultaneously with the national election.
The TDP was resigned to its worst rout in the 294-member assembly of Andhra Pradesh, with a combative Congress set to storm back to power after nine long years.
The BJP, no longer taking refuge in the argument against the accuracy of exit polls, Tuesday feared the worst in Thursday's counting of the national elections after exit polls predicted a considerable slide for NDA.
Exit polls have given the BJP and its allies in the NDA between a dismal 230 and a barely-there 278 seats in the Lok Sabha, where 272 is needed to win a majority of the 543 contested seats.
A divided opposition had apparently made big gains, with the exit polls tipping the Congress and its allies to win 171 to 191 seats. Other parties are predicted to bag 86 to 104 seats.
"If the NDA wins less than 250 seats, the Congress has a chance of forming the government, though a short-lived one," said political analyst Aditya Mukherjee of the Jawaharlal Nehru University here.
"However, if the NDA wins around 250 or even slightly more, its allies would not allow it to back out. But even the BJP would not like to head an unstable government."
Mukherjee pictured an unusual situation in which the first and second largest parties were reluctant to form a government, preferring to prop up some other group.
"But it is a hung parliament we are looking at, of that there is no doubt at all," he averred.
The Congress, leftists and opposition parties, which have been encouraged enough by exit polls to begin the spadework on cobbling an alternative to the NDA, were abuzz with activity in New Delhi Tuesday.
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader Harkishen Singh Surjeet - for long considered a glue in a divided opposition -- called on Congress president Sonia Gandhi Tuesday as the Andhra Pradesh results poured in, reportedly urging her to try putting together an alternate government.
Encouraged by gains projected by exit polls, the Congress had Monday assured potential allies that it would not push Italy-born Gandhi as a prime ministerial candidate if it did not win a majority on its own.
On Tuesday, Gandhi was believed to have advised Surjeet that the leadership of a secular front should be taken up only after the national outcome was known.
However, even the party's insistence on leading a secular front could put off certain groups inherently uncomfortable about being seen in the company of the Congress.
"Parties like the Asom Gana Parishad, Indian National Lok Dal and even Samajwadi Party would be more comfortable with Congress supporting them from outside rather than sitting with it," said psephologist G.V.L. Narasimha Rao.
Rao felt the Congress' attitude would to a large extent decide the future of the next government.
If the party insisted on leading a coalition government, the NDA could bring more groups to its camp and form the government even if it won around 240 seats.
"Right now, my suggestion would be to review all your market interests, your personal investments and see if it is the right time to sell now or on Friday (after the national verdict). A hung parliament is certain," Rao remarked.
