Balancing act

It?s doubtful if the UN resolution on Iran, which the US and its European allies have tabled, would be of much help in ending Tehran?s nuclear defiance any time soon.

It’s doubtful if the UN resolution on Iran, which the US and its European allies have tabled, would be of much help in ending Tehran’s nuclear defiance any time soon. The document calls on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, or face ‘further action’. Although the draft doesn’t specify what ‘action’ may be taken, the implications are clear enough. It could subsequently allow for sanctions, or even military options as a last resort. The move launches what looks like a drawn-out diplomatic process designed to win approval for tough measures from veto-holding permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), Russia and China, who have so far rejected any move towards sanctioning.

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With the military option off the table for the moment, Washington’s intention is evidently to push for sanctions — if not by the UNSC then by a ‘coalition of the willing’ outside the UN. This may be based on the calculation that harsh economic sanctions would hit Iran’s poorest the hardest and prompt people to react as they did in the Seventies, leading to protests in the streets. But despite their potential to considerably damage the Iranian economy, sanctions may also be counterproductive and serve to play into the hands of Iran’s hardliners. As recent events prove, the Bush administration’s assumption that calibrated pressure would yield Iranian acquiescence has not worked. In fact, Tehran’s belligerent regime clearly depends so much on defiance for its political survival that the more intense the pressure, the more intransigent Iran’s response is likely to be.

So it’d be a better bet for Washington to devise a strategy that would restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions without appearing to dent its national pride. But while easing sanctions, releasing Iranian assets frozen since the revolution and, at some point, establishing diplomatic relations are ideas that need to be considered, Tehran must also walk the talk and show us what it means when it says there are ‘a multitude of possibilities for finding a peaceful resolution’.