Bush-Blair honeymoon!

Blair has found the 'fig leaf' in African poverty to steer his legacy away from apron strings of White House, writes Binay Kumar.

We all know politics makes strange bedfellows. And it couldn't get stranger than the Blair-Bush partnership over Iraq. All this time, however, we also thought this was too good to be true. Well, the chinks in the armour are finally beginning to show. All indications are that the honeymoon is over.

For all their brave common front on Iraq flaunted to the world by Tony Blair and George W. Bush in Washington recently, the reality is that the British Prime Minister may have finally found the 'fig leaf' in African poverty to steer his legacy away from the apron strings of the White House. After all, by his own volition, this is supposed to be his last term in office. What lasting legacy would he leave behind? Africa may provide the salvation from the ignominy of Iraq.

No wonder he is quietly spearheading an aggressive campaign to force the American president to retreat on climate change and debt relief to Africa. Blair and the other European leaders are working in tandem to 'force' the U.S. to back the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gases when they meet at Gleneagles for next month's G8 industrial summit .

What is common between the greenhouse gases and African debt? The short answer to that complex question is: politics. Blair is using the deeply unpopular unilateral stance of the Americans to extract concessions on Africa. He used his recent Washington trip to balance unpopular support for Bush on Iraq by obtaining from the Americans a firm pledge on aid to Africa and global warming.

While the African issue is not as important for the Americans as it has become for Blair or his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, the Kyoto Protocol is because it directly affects their conservative stance on big business and the oil lobby in particular. Blair minced no words when he said on PBS's 'News Hour', "If the U.S. isn't part of this deal overall, then it's very difficult to tackle the problem."

The truth is that Blair is really serious about aid to Africa and resuscitating the nearly dead Kyoto Protocol. He's working on Putin, already has Europe in his pocket on this one, and is shoring up his standing at home by taking on the French on the EU rebate. I wonder if the Americans realize what awaits them at Gleneagles.

Blair's seriousness on Africa was most evident in his ability to tackle the Russian President Putin with whom relations in the recent past have been rather frosty. Iraq was again the culprit. But both Blair and Putin know that Russia's membership of the G8 is under pressure and that Russia may have little to offer materially towards alleviating world poverty. It is also reluctant to offer anything on climate change now that it has discovered vast quantities of oil and gas reserves.

Yet it did not surprise us when Putin, who recently played host to Blair at a dacha outside Moscow, announced to the world, "We fully support the ideas of the British leadership and in particular of the prime minister ... for the forthcoming (G8) summit."

What is Blair's motivation to make Africa the centerpiece of his remaining years in power? Cynics say that Blair needs to divert the attention of the British public from Iraq as he approaches end of his political career. And by focusing on African development, Blair is emphasizing the traditional socialist emphasis on "soft power" as opposed to his unpopular decision to ride roughshod over everyone to further the cause of Bush's Middle Eastern intervention.

The question of legacy and how the history would judge his prime ministership may well trouble Blair's conscience. But there's more to it than his personal agenda. It's more significant to note that the Labour Party has consistently assigned special emphasis to African development ever since it came to power over a decade ago.

Blair created a full cabinet position for the overseas development function, and appointed strong ministers who exercised international leadership in African affairs. Indeed, the Department of Overseas Development effectively took Africa policy away from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office under Labour's administration. It is highly likely that Blair is taking this initiative because he really believes that Africa merits a higher policy priority than it has been getting lately. Finally, Blair's initiative in creating a high profile for Africa in his policy initiatives may be an additional way to counter French President Jacques Chirac who has consistently presented himself as Africa's best friend in Europe.

Blair is also finding support for his thesis in most unexpected quarters, the American academia. I recently read a wonderful book by an eminent American development economist, Jeffrey D. Sachs, entitled 'The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time'. Sachs is the Director of Columbia University's Earth Institute and special adviser to the UN secretary general.

In his widely acclaimed book, Sachs sketches out a sequence of targeted, prioritized investments over 10 to 15 years in the poverty stricken African continent. After that, if history is any guide, Sach's prescriptions should make the formerly wretched an equal; partner in the comity of nations. Next week we examine in some detail how he thinks this could be made possible.