Cong lead is intact

The absence of change in the Survey findings so far does not, however, foreclose the possibility of such change in the future.

The fieldwork for the HT-CSDS Survey is over. With 14,460 interviews spread over two months and 70 constituencies, this has been the biggest ever survey of people’s opinions and attitudes anywhere in India.

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The first report in this series on October 20 was based on 9,765 interviews. It projected a 48 per cent vote share for the Congress and 31 per cent for the BJP. Three weeks later, after another 500 interviews, this picture has not changed much.

The reason for the consistency in the findings lies in the sampling. The first sample of 9,765 had been as representative of the actual population as is the final sample of 14,460. In our randomly picked sample, 53.2 per cent of respondents were male, 46.8 per cent female, 82.9 per cent Hindu, 9.9 per cent Muslim, 4.7 per cent Sikh and 18.4 per cent Dalit. The corresponding actual figures for Delhi, according to the census of 2001, are as follows: 54.7 per cent, 45.3 per cent, 83.7 per cent, 9.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 19 per cent.

The absence of change in the Survey findings so far does not, however, foreclose the possibility of such change in the future.

To gauge the voter’s mood as campaigning reaches a peak, the HT-CSDS team will carry out another election survey in a few days from now. The findings of that Survey will be published in the Hindustan Times towards the end of this month. Meanwhile, our regular election coverage will continue. So, do keep watching this space.