Early rains, but hold that cheer
THE MONSOON hit the southern coast of Kerala on Friday ? six days ahead of schedule ? and brought with it not only relief from the blazing sun but also prospects of a year of robust growth.india Updated: May 27, 2006 14:09 IST
THE MONSOON hit the southern coast of Kerala on Friday — six days ahead of schedule — and brought with it not only relief from the blazing sun but also prospects of a year of robust growth.
Subir Gokran, chief economist at Crisil, told HT: “One shouldn't read too much into the monsoon hitting early as we have seen in the past that late activated monsoons also do well.
What is important is the April announcement where it was disclosed that the rains would be seven per cent deficit, which in my opinion is within the tolerance level. But we need to examine the June 10 rain announcement that is based on 10 parameters (against the April one that's based on eight), which will provide us with data on the actual spread of the rains over the next four months.”
India’s $700 million economy has expanded at an average 8 per cent in the past three years after normal rains, and the RBI expects growth of 7.5-8 per cent in the fiscal ending March 2007.
The Met Department confirmed the onset of monsoon and prospects of its rapid progress towards Karnataka and the northeast regions.
“It is positive news,” said Indranil Pan, chief economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank. “But we have to look at the performance of the monsoon during the season to know its impact on prices and the economy.”
“It will have a salutary effect on runaway commodity prices,” said Atul Chaturvedi, president, Adani Exports, a top grains trading firm.
Traders said good rains would benefit farmers by allowing crops to be planted and harvested at the right time. “If the monsoon advances without any delay, it will benefit farmers and sowing of soybean and groundnut will be over by mid-June,” Chaturvedi said.
“But we’ll have to see the spread of the rains during the entire season.” However, Shitin Desai, vice-chairman DSP Merrill Lynch, was dismissive. “Let the rains hit the whole country, only then can one assess the situation and its impact.”
While Kerala rejoices, the parched north will have to wait some more. The monsoon is expected to move towards Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur in the northeast and to the southern parts of Karnataka in the next two to three days. With inputs from HTC, Thiruvananthapuram
1 Expected to progress towards Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur in N-E and southern Karnataka in next 2-3 days
2 North will have to wait it out some more Damp nautapa
3 Weather in most parts of the State remained freakish on the second day of nautapa – believed to be hottest in the year.