Geneva talks unlikely to be smooth

As Tamil MPs say, the Govt will find it tough to accept the basic demands of the LTTE with respect to the CFA, writes PK Balachandran.

The proposed talks between the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE on the smooth implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) in Geneva in mid-February is unlikely to be smooth despite President Mahinda Rajapaksa's recent conciliatory moves.

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According to Tamil MPs, the Government will find it very hard, if not impossible, to accept some of the basic demands of the LTTE with respect to the the CFA.

One of the main issues that the LTTE will rake up is the role of the Tamil paramilitaries in the North East. The LTTE alleges that these groups kill its civil and military cadres in the government-held areas, with complete impunity, because they are in cahoots with the Sri Lankan armed forces.

The LTTE also contends that the Government and its Tamil militant allies are using the breakaway Karuna group as a cover to launch attacks against it in the Eastern districts.

The LTTE points out that the Government is duty bound to disarm or relocate these paramilitaries as per Article 1.8 of the CFA.

But the government's case has been that it has no Tamil paramilitaries at all, and that the so-called Tamil paramilitaries are but members of a breakaway LTTE group led by former Batticaloa commander 'Colonel' Karun. The killings are seen as an internal LTTE matter in which Government has no role to play.

It is yet to be seen how the two sides will bridge the gap in perceptions and contentions. For both, the issue is a matter of strategic importance.

For the LTTE, it is a matter of life and death because the Tamil paramilitaries are less easily identifiable and therefore more dangerous than the regular Sri Lankan army. It is well recognised that the activities of the anti-LTTE militants has severely curbed the abilities of the LTTE in Batticaloa district, breakway leader Karuna's home.

Assuming that the Government is backing the paramilitaries, it will find it difficult to disarm them or relocate them. If it does so, it will lose any strategic advantage such groups may have given it in the North East.

There is already a strong feeling in the Sinhala South that the CFA had snatched political and strategic advantage from the hands of the Government. It had led to the LTTE's taking control of the politics and institutional structures in the government-held part of the North East, while denying to the Government any access to the LTTE-controlled areas.

Such issues, which have great political and strategic dimensions, are expected to weigh in the minds of the negotiators at Geneva.

The other issue which is bound to be brought up by the LTTE is the vacation of public and private buildings and spaces now occupied by the Sri Lankan armed forces in the North East, particularly Jaffna district. The LTTE will cite the relevant clauses in the CFA towards this end.

But in this matter too, the Government cannot give in easily. Alternative accommodation is not easy to find. Pro-LTTE Tamil politicians also say that the LTTE will demand the withdrawal of the Sri Lankan Army and Navy detachments from public places into regular army camps to 'restore normalcy'. It will also demand that the many army check points that have come up, especially in Jaffna and Trincomalee districts, be closed to reduce 'harassment' of civilians.

It is believed that the army will resist any such suggestion for obvious reasons. Removal of these check points, it is feared, will only give the LTTE a free run over the entire government-held area.

The LTTE will also bring up the issue of the rolling back or dismantling of the High Security Zones in Jaffna peninsula. But, this will meet stiff resistance from the army, whose Commander Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka, has very strong views on it.

Tamil politicians believe that the Government will try its best to highlight some of the unfavourable imbalances in the CFA and indirectly seek a recasting of it. But the LTTE will resist it with all its might because it has agreed to come for talks on the condition that only the 'smooth implementation' of the existing CFA will be discussed.

President Rajapaksa is keen on walking the extra mile to see that the present orgy of killings is stopped. On Friday, he asked the Army and the police to crackdown on elements which hamper the peace process.

Though it is not clear if he was referring to the Tamil paramilitaries, he did say in a statement that the Government ought to put its best foot forward now and prevent moves by any party to block or sabotage the peace process.

When asked point blank about the activities of the paramilitaries, Rajapaksa said," I know about this. Various sections are functioning in the background. Already a number of problems have arisen and they should be brought under control. I want you to give me time to solve them."

He then went on to say,"This cannot be done in a day. What can I do if military activities go before political activities? It is to be taken lying down and nothing can be done. In this matter, I will take firm decisions as early as possible. I need the backing for it. Different people and forces have to be controlled in a different manner. There are forces within that have no connection with us."

Tamil MPs say that killings, now a daily affair, must stop if the two sides are to meet for talks. They fear that given the tense situation in the North East, this may not be an easy condition to meet.

And as one MP from Jaffna put it: " Even if they meet, the talks may not last because of the wide gulf separating the two sides and the total lack of faith in each other's bona fides."