King Cong

At one level the HT-CNN/IBN poll tells us something that is obvious. With the BJP caught in a muddle of its own making, there is little or no challenge to the party whose natural constituency is the country itself.

At one level the HT-CNN/IBN poll tells us something that is obvious. With the BJP caught in a muddle of its own making, there is little or no challenge to the party whose natural constituency is the country itself. Yet, the poll serves the invaluable purpose of authenticating statistically what is evident to us anecdotally. What it reveals is that the UPA has consolidated itself and is a good 10 per cent points ahead of the NDA in terms of the vote share it would receive were elections be held today. The poll also suggests that the Congress would be the main gainer, with its seat share going up significantly at the expense of the opposition and its own allies. The poll underscores the country’s emphatic acceptance of Sonia Gandhi’s leadership role.

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The calming effect that the Congress-led UPA has had on the Indian polity is palpable. Gone are the spasms of tension that the Sangh parivar unleashed in pursuit of its Hindutva agenda. The Left’s fulminations do raise the decibels every now and then. But its agenda is an irritation rather than a serious block to the ruling party’s efforts to set a developmental strategy that will avoid the pitfalls of ‘India Shining’. What the poll suggests is that the Congress’s trajectory is in the right direction and what it, perhaps, needs is to accelerate decision-making in a host of areas relating to economic reforms where it has been somewhat tentative.

The last thing the party needs, however, is to let this good news encourage complacency. This is, after all, a test poll. No matter how scientifically conducted, it cannot replicate the actual outcome of an election. The party needs to get on with its rural and urban uplift projects and its ambitious rural employment guarantee scheme; it needs more political sweat and toil in the Hindi heartland states, and sharper coalition management skills to prevent other Karnatakas. It is one thing to be able to enjoy an extended honeymoon, and quite another to enjoy the pleasures of a stable marriage.