Security umbrella?

What should be the policy of the UK and USA towards a state which has nuclear weapons, questions Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta.

First of all, the question which needs to be answered is why am I lumping UK and USA together? Surely their national interests and democratic structures will mean that they will take independent steps? Unfortunately, no and to see why, we need to see the complex linkages between the three countries. That itself is complex enough to try and explain without bringing in China and India, so we will leave that for another time. Let us start with the UK–Pakistan link, then the USA–Pakistan link and finally how the UK and USA could suitably calibrate their relationship towards Pakistan.

The colonial history of the United Kingdom in erstwhile British India is well known and we need not reiterate it, but the post independence period relationship between the UK and Pakistan can be characterised as a declining one. That said, there are still a considerable body of strong links between the 2 countries. The first and foremost is the problem of Kashmir, which the UK bequeathed to India, Pakistan and the world. That rat’s nest remnant of colonial history ranks with the other colonial messes, such as the Israeli Palestinian problem, Zimbabwe, Thailand, South Africa, Sudan, and so many other running sores and issues and the UK has lots to answer for. Second is the fact that the Pakistani National Institutions rely very heavily on the British Model, despite more than half a century of independence. The civil and criminal codes, the constitution, the executive formation, the military, the police structure, local government, bureaucracy, ministries, city administration, central-provincial governments, Quango's etc. are all built upon the edifice constructed when the UK was ruling over the country.

The third link between the UK and Pakistan is the Commonwealth. While originally designed for far grander aspirations, it has been reduced to a talking shop where the heads of state still like to get together for a bit of a chin-wag and rub shoulders with the former British colonies. It still does some good cultural work though and it has a certain peer pressure mechanism (Pakistan has drifted in and out of it many times – mainly due to the coups) which works intermittently, but the United Kingdom lays great store in it. The fourth link is the very large number of people of Pakistani (and Bangladeshi) origin in the UK. This Diaspora means that the UK government is sensitive to issues back home. For example, this Diaspora gets far more excited about the Kashmir issue than Pakistani democracy and questions about Pakistan get raised to their MP’s quite frequently.

The UK specific factors relate to the facts that the UK is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has nuclear weapons, is a major financial centre and perhaps more importantly, has the ability to deploy and project force in that area. The United Kingdom is known to deploy force in support of its foreign policy objectives or to support governments in its former colonies such as the recent deployment in Iraq and Sierra Leone. So if there are any major issues in Pakistan, the United Kingdom WILL be dragged into it, whether it likes it or not. A proactive foreign policy is definitely a better option than sitting back, waiting and then be forced to react. Thankfully, the British Governments haven’t shirked from this proactive stance, just witness the recent Palestinian conference in London.

On the other hand, the USA is in a different situation. Before the cold war started, Pakistan didn’t figure anywhere, but after the cold war started, it became a frontline state against communism. Once the cold war ended, after an interregnum of a few years, the war on terror started and Pakistan found itself to be one of the locus points of this war. I read that Pakistan is a minor arm of the American government, which would give an indication of this close relationship. This Pakistani student in the UK was with an American friend who was voting in the recent US presidential election of 2004. The Pakistani student remarked, “Can I see the ballot paper and follow the process please? I am so interested because your elections have a far greater impact on my country than any of my country’s elections”. The American Ambassador is the first port of call by the Pakistani powers that be, any major policy shift is validated by the Americans, and the Army is almost an adjunct to the US army which is all over Pakistan anyway.

In the current circumstances, the USA is trying a very high live wire act between relying on an authoritarian military regime for short term purposes, versus a long term democratisation idealisation. The US think tanks, military, congress and executive are keeping quite busy with Pakistan indeed. If one needs confirmation, a look at Stephen Cohen’s latest book “The Idea of Pakistan” is very interesting. The range of opinions and interest can also be gleaned by looking at the bibliography at the back of this book. Some may well ask, why would the Americans care about what happens in Pakistan? Well, dear readers, 9/11 is a very direct example of what happened when America took its eyes off Pakistan and the repercussions of the jehadi groups birthed in Pakistan are spreading across the entire world. Look at any jehadi terrorist who has been captured in the past four years and more often than not, that person has been associated with Pakistan in some shape or form. More than the UK, the USA and/or the American people will become the biggest target if Pakistan implodes or is mismanaged.