Waiting for Iran

The endgame in the Iran nuclear imbroglio may have begun, going by the UNSC resolution that give Tehran a month to suspend its enrichment plans.

The endgame in the Iranian nuclear imbroglio may have begun, going by the UNSC resolution passed last Monday, giving Tehran a month to suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities. The draft reportedly received a 14-1 vote, with Qatar the sole dissenter. The vote followed a July 12 agreement by the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China to refer Tehran to the UNSC for not responding to the incentives package they had offered. A light water reactor and an international fuel consortium to provide fuel apart, Iran was also offered airplane spare parts and WTO membership. Because of Russian and Chinese demands, the resolution has been watered down and speaks of ‘appropriate measures’ only to be taken if Iran does not comply, without really spelling out the threat of immediate sanctions.

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But Tehran’s obstinacy could pave the way for a full-fledged sanctions resolution. Tehran’s tactic of pledging that it remains committed to negotiations, while declining to clarify whether it would accept international incentives and end the standoff, have now reached the end of the road. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is probably using the nuclear programme not just to challenge the US, but also to divert attention at home from a failing economy. Tehran could also be miscalculating that the war touched off by its protege, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, would divert attention from Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran doesn’t have too many options, especially since its tactics have brought on unprecedented unity between the US and the EU. Continuing refusal to come up with a constructive response could also get the Russians and Chinese onboard a tougher regime against Iran. The choices are not that complicated, but it is up to Tehran to make them.