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2019 Lok Sabha elections: Exit polls in favour of BJP-Shiv Sena in Maharashtra
Most polls project 34 to 39 seats for BJP-Shiv Sena combine, indicating a second term in the state; restrict the Cong-NCP to 14 or fewer seats
If the exit polls for Lok Sabha elections are to be believed, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena alliance can expect a second term in the state too, with the Assembly polls to be held after four months.
The exit polls are more positive for Sena as its U-turn to join the alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections was expected to damage the party more than its ally, the BJP.
Most of the exit polls have projected the saffron alliance to be winning 34 to 39 seats and restricting the Opposition to 14 or fewer seats.
Although the BJP-Sena alliance is facing a loss of about five-eight seats as compared to its 2014 tally, it is considered to be less after running the government at the Centre and state for five years.
The Congress-NCP was expecting a fair show with at least 20 seats with the help of its smaller allies like Swabhimani Paksha, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi and Yuva Swabhimani Paksha.
ABP-AC Nielsen has projected 34 (NDA) and 14 (UPA), Republic-C Voter 34 and 14, CNN-News18-IPSOS 42-44 and 4-6 and Times Now-VMR 38 and 10 in Maharashtra.
The BJP-led NDA had won 41 seats, while Congress-NCP were restricted to six seats in the 2014 elections.
Keshav Upadhye, a BJP spokesperson, said, “We respect the exit polls, but the BJP-Sena will do better at the national level and in Maharashtra,”
“Besides the performance by our governments in the state and at the Centre, our poll strategy has worked in the state. Apart from convincing the Sena to forge an alliance, we poached key leaders from the Congress and NCP, which helped. Our co-ordination with the Sena was better than the one between the Congress and the NCP,” said a BJP leader, on the condition of anonymity.
Congress leaders said they may have failed in taking advantage of the favourable political environment in the state amid unrest among various communities over reservation and the agrarian crisis.
Maharashtra Congress chief Ashok Chavan, however , has raised doubts over the accuracy of the exit polls.
“These exit polls are based on a sample size survey and they may differ from the actual results. In the past also, many exit polls were off the mark and here too we feel that both the Congress and the NCP will win more than 20 seats in the state,” said Chavan.
Meanwhile, Prakash Ambedkar, chief of Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), said, “How can BJP attain a majority when a large section of society is against it? We saw BJP losing many states in recent Assembly elections and the trend is expected to be repeated at the national level,” said Ambedkar.
Nawab Malik, NCP spokesperson, said, “Different exit polls are predicting different results. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, one is showing that SP-BSP will win most seats and another is giving just 15-18 seats to the combine. How can this be possible,” said Malik.
Political analyst Pratap Asbe has, however, said exit polls have been proved wrong in recent elections. “The methodology adopted by exit poll surveyors is not foolproof and one needs to wait till actual results are announced.”
