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In this Mulayam bastion, poll outcome is quite predictable
The past and the present of Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat make elections quite predictable here.
The past and the present of Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat make elections quite predictable here.
Present: Samajwadi Party (SP) founder and patron Mulayam Singh Yadav is contesting the Mainpuri seat. The Congress as well as the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (PSP-L) of Mulayam’s brother Shivpal Yadav are not fielding any candidate against him. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is an ally this time while the BJP has not fielded a candidate yet.
Past: Mulayam won this constituency with huge margins in 1996, 2004, 2009, and 2014. The Samajwadi Party has won the seat eight times, including bypolls, in a row since 1996. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could never win the seat.
In Mainpuri, Mulayam’s home district, even those who have allegiance to other parties do not hesitate in ‘announcing’ his victory.
The constituency largely has rural (over 35% Yadavs) voters. “Barring a handful of non-Yadav backwards-dominated villages, most are dominated by Yadavs. My village Sanjapur is one such village that is dominated by non-Yadav backwards. I am a Lodhi Rajput, a backward. And there never has been an option to vote for anyone else. Though, once during Kalyan Singh’s tenure as the chief minister, I had voted for BJP candidate but the vote got wasted,” said Vijay Singh Rajput, 52, taking time off from potato harvesting work that he was busy in.
Mulayam, who had been UP chief minister thrice and union defence minister once, is still called ‘Mukhya Mantri’ by many in the constituency.
He nurtured the constituency well and his ancestral village is considered as one of its kind village in India. The village has a medical college, a medical research institute, an international cricket stadium, international all-weather swimming pool, two more stadia, airstrip, and more.
During his term as UP chief minister, Akhilesh added the Agra-Lucknow Expressway to the list. The expressway passes through Mainpuri.
“We understand that even the BJP would field a weak candidate against ‘netaji’ (Mulayam). Anyway, any candidate would be a weak candidate here,” said Anshul Yadav, a resident of Mainpuri.
In 2009, Mulayam polled 3,92,308 votes (56.44%) and the first runner-up, BSP’s Vinay Shakya, was way behind at 31% vote share.
Even during Modi wave in 2014, when the BJP won 71 seats, Mulayam won Mainpuri easily.
In fact, his vote share rose further. In 2014, Mulayam bagged 5,95,918 votes (60%) and his nearest rival, BJP’s Shatrughan Singh Chauhan, got only 23.14% vote share.
Samajwadi Party leaders say that because of BSP being an ally, Mulayam’s vote share would go up this time.
If we combine the vote share of SP-BSP of 2014, it becomes a whopping 74%.
The constituency is now waiting for April 19, when Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, and Rashtriya Lok Dal president Ajit Singh will hold a joint rally for Mulayam’s victory.
Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency
- BJP has never won the seat
- Congress won it four times, last time in 1984.
- Mulayam Singh Yadav has won it four times: 1996, 2004, 2009 and 2014
- Mulayam vacated the constituency twice: in 2004 and 2014. First time when he vacated it, his nephew Dharmendra Yadav won the bypolls. The second time, his other grandnephew Tej Pratap Singh Yadav won it.
- The five assembly segments of Mainpuri parliamentary constituency are Mainpuri, Jaswant Nagar, Bhogaon, Karhal, and Kishni.
- Mainpuri is a Yadav-dominant constituency.
- The constituency is in existence since the first Lok Sahba elections in 1951-52.
- In 2014, Mullaym polled 59.63% votes, BJP’s Shatrughan Singh Chauhan got 23.14% and BSP’s Sanghmitra Maurya bagged 14.29%.
