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Lok Sabha Elections 2019: In Rajasthan, Congress unlikely to reap 2018 Assembly poll advantage
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Congress’ performance in Rajasthan assembly election, in which it barely scraped through to the majority mark of 100 in the 200-member assembly, indicates it may not repeat its 2009 general elections performance when a few months after it had formed the government in the state, the party won 20 Lok Sabha seats.
In Rajasthan, election to the state assembly have been held very close to the Lok Sabha polls, and in most cases, the party that gets majority in Vidhan Sabha carries forward its performance in the parliament. By that convention, the Congress, which formed the government in Rajasthan in December 2018, has an upper hand before the state goes to the Lok Sabha polls in two phases on April 29 and May 6.
However, the party’s performance in the assembly election, in which it barely scraped through to the majority mark of 100 in the 200-member assembly, indicates it may not repeat its 2009 performance when a few months after it had formed the government in the state, the party won 20 Lok Sabha seats. This was almost similar to the BJP’S performance of 2004 — the party won Lok Sabha 21 seats after it was voted to power in Rajasthan.
The 2014 Lok Sabha election was a wave election and riding on it, BJP won all 25 seats in the state after registering the biggest victory in assembly election in recent history. BJP won 163 seats.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party’s tally can only slide down. The question is: Will Congress be able to win 20 or more seats?
Experts say that seems unlikely. The Congress vote share in the 2018 assembly election was marginally less than that of the BJP. In 2008 assembly, the difference between the vote shares of both parties was 1.32%, but Congress had polled more votes.
“The BJP getting more votes than the Congress in the state election means people did not conclusively reject the BJP. People were angry with Vasundhara Raje, but Congress’ poor ticket selection squandered that advantage. Though the party did form the government, but don’t forget the BJP has 73 legislators. In the Lok Sabha election, the Raje factor will dissipate and Modi wave will take over,” said political expert Ashok Choudhary.
Choudhary has a point. In the run-up to the 2018 Assembly polls, the slogan, “Modi tujhse bair nahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi” (We have no malice towards you, Modi, but won’t spare you, Vasundhara), was heard at many rallies.
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Another expert, Narayan Bareth, said the airstrikes against Pakistan in the wake of the Pulwama terror attack have given Prime Minister Narendra Modi an advantage. “The Modi wave may not be as strong as it was in 2014, but it exists for sure,” he says.
The emergence of Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) will also queer the pitch for the Congress, especially in the tribal-dominated four parliamentary constituencies of the Mewar region –Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand and Banswara-dungarpur. BTP contested 11 assembly seats in the state and won two.
Congress says it will go to polls on the back of the performance of Ashok Gehlot government and failure of the central government. “There were five ministers in Modi’s cabinet from Rajasthan but their contribution to the development of the state was zero,” said party spokesperson Satyendra Raghav.
The BJP, on the other hand, will bank of Modi government’s schemes. “The main agenda of the party would to highlight the schemes of Modi government like Ayushman Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Jan Dhan Yojana for the development of poor people. We will also highlight the courage of the party to fight against terrorism,” said party spokesperson Pankaj Meena.
